Pandemic powerfully impacts election run-up
Eighty days out from the election, the pandemic is unquestionably political, a powder keg without precedent. Navigating through the curveballs the Covid-19 crisis has thrown up presents risks and rewards in equal measure for the Government.
Labour’s re-election prospects will be largely shaped by how they manage the twin demons monstering our daily lives.
Wrestling with the economic convulsion throttling New Zealand is a daunting enough task with unknown consequences, but guarding against community spread of Covid-19 is an equally herculean assignment.
Any leakage, any evidence of renewed community transmission, would spell electoral disaster for the Ardern-led Government. After all, the prime minister’s high bar was self-imposed back in May, when she freely admitted, ‘‘I’m a perfectionist’’, when it comes to her risk-averse position on this public health crisis.
Last week’s dramatic nine-point swing in the One News Colmar-Brunton Poll against Labour vividly illustrates how volatile and flinty the public mood is in the depths of a crisis.
Many swing voters, who initially rewarded the Government for liberating the nation of this wretched virus, were just as fast to punish them for dropping the ball at the border.
We have dodged a major bullet, with no evidence of renewed community spread stemming from the ropy state of the Managed Isolation and Quarantine (MIQ) system earlier this month. Lady Luck saved the day, but how many Kiwis will forgive any further significant lapses?
The fury and fallout over the Thelma & Louise debacle has swiftly resuscitated National’s flagging fortunes, and after a decidedly shaky start as opposition leader, Todd Muller seems to be finding his feet.
A world away from the alpha dynamism of a John Key-type personality, Muller’s mantle of leadership is more in keeping with the Keith Holyoake mould.
He’s not in danger of setting the world on fire, but National is banking on projecting him as solid and steady, the safer pair of hands in troubled times.
But as much as Team Muller would love to take charge of the campaign narrative, they cannot control the Covid casino destined to command the script and deliver the election’s biggest twists, economically or in public health.
The PM wisely installed her adept and topperforming lieutenant, Megan Woods, as the minister responsible for MIQ oversight, to mop up the regime’s failings and secure a robust footing for its forward operations, alongside Air Commodore Darren Webb.
In conversation with Woods over the weekend, the housing minister was acutely aware of the high-stakes task she’s been entrusted with.
She’s relishing the role, pointedly remarking: ‘‘I’m a details person’’.
Cabinet had clear expectations around testing procedures at the start of June, but as much as Woods refuses to say so, Health Minister David Clark was surely asleep at the wheel. Why wasn’t he checking and double-checking the MIQ protocols and procedures were being rigidly applied and enforced on a daily basis?
Daily reports are now dispatched to the minister’s desk, laying out all the relevant monitoring data from the facilities.
Does Woods feel the weight of the nation on her shoulders? ‘‘Our Government has that weight, we have a job to do to maintain our fortunate position in the world. I take it incredibly seriously and personally,’’ she says. After visiting six of the 21 MIQ facilities in the past week, and in the wake of the rapid audit review, Woods tells me she is very satisfied with the processes and procedures at the facilities, while further improvements are rolled out.
Our two-step border barrier comprises the twoweek containment period and the testing regime. She eagerly pointed out the system also relies on compliance and individual responsibility.
Nearly 80 returnees have so far refused to be tested.
Woods assures me that such individuals will remain contained for 28 days and it will be ‘‘religiously enforced’’.
Slap them with part-charges, as well. Ahead of September 19, the spectre of renewed community spread would be political kryptonite.
Woods agrees such a development would be ‘‘gutting’’ but should only be considered a failure ‘‘if the systems let New Zealand down’’.
The road to September 19: welcome to election roulette.
Lady Luck saved the day, but how many Kiwis will forgive any further significant lapses?