Hard yards beckon Team Biden
With Joe Biden inaugurated as the 46th President of the United States and Kamala Harris sworn in as the first woman Vice-President, hopefulness for a return to ‘‘normal’’ in American politics is tainted by the realisation that
America is a changed and deeply troubled nation.
The inauguration itself, with a heavy military and police presence, the absence of large civilian crowds, and the outgoing president himself, is a stunning embodiment of the many complex challenges that lie ahead for Biden’s presidency.
Public health, the economy, the political culture and the political system itself all represent urgent challenges for Team Biden to address.
Much like the pandemic has forced us to adjust to a ‘‘new normal,’’ the legacy of the Trump presidency will force future presidents to contend with a ‘‘new normal’’ of American politics.
The absence of large crowds at the inauguration reflects a public health push to contain a virus that continues to break records across the country. Addressing this crisis will be just one of the huge challenges to confront the new administration.
Trump leaves behind a legacy of a virus so entrenched, even the harshest public health measures would struggle to contain it.
Worse, Trump leaves a legacy of supporters with critically low trust in government. From anti-lockdown, anti-maskers, to outright virus deniers – individualism has been allowed to run amok over the past year, disregarding collective health outcomes.
Together these attitudes will limit the policy tools available to Biden to curb the spread of Covid-19. The new administration has, of course, access to the vaccine but this will not be a panacea, as seen with the challenges of the vaccine rollout. Expect to see the anti-lockdown and virus deniers champion an anti-vax narrative.
Secondly, Biden faces an economy gasping for breath. America is facing a recession – comparable to that of the Great Depression – that threatens to exacerbate divisions already tearing the country apart as marginalised communities take the greatest brunt of the downturn.
As unemployment rises, the number of consumers shrinks, which spells a vicious cycle for the economy. Biden has already proposed a stimulus package which will include stimulus cheques, unemployment and accommodation support, and possibly even an increase in the minimum wage.
However, even with support in both houses, the implementation of this package could still be months away. Additionally, these measures build on ‘band-aids’ already used by the previous administration. Some imagination is required to find longterm solutions.
The lack of crowds at Biden’s inauguration also reflects a response to the significant security threats made clear after the unprecedented riots on Capitol Hill. This display of aggressive political polarisation is Biden’s third big challenge.
Even prior to Trump, the US was on a path to increasing polarisation and declining bipartisanship. Trump accelerated it. Even though Biden may control both houses for now, hyper-partisanship poses a huge threat to future administrations.
If not addressed, gridlocks will become a common feature of American politics, rendering the government unable to respond to future demands and crises. On the other hand, negative partisanship threatens to derail any opportunity for compromise as voters (and elected representatives) become entrenched in opposing their foes at every possible opportunity.
Finally, perhaps the biggest challenge Biden will grapple with is reforming a political system designed in the 18th century to fit the realities of contemporary America.
American democracy had a ‘neardeath’ experience and without reform it may not be so lucky the next time. The antiquated electoral college system has inflamed partisanship, creating disillusionment and distrust among American voters.
This decline in trust – in authority and processes (such as the election) – poses a real and lasting threat to US democracy that could make scenes such as those at Capitol Hill two weeks ago more frequent occurrences.
Trump has also exposed many ways that the presidency can be exploited – from the use of executive orders, to politicisation of the Supreme Court and the judiciary, controversial presidential and administrative policies enacted during the ‘lame duck’ period, and even his objectionable use of presidential pardon.
The US system has shown its Achilles heel. To avoid this recurring, President Biden and future US presidents will have to consider changes to presidential powers, a decision that ultimately will result in self-sacrifice.
Across every domain, Team Biden faces significant challenges. Overcoming these will merely constitute the survival of America, let alone its growth.
If President Biden can simply hold the centre, his presidency will be considered a success.
Nonetheless, as observers and as an international partner of the US, we must also come to terms with America’s ‘‘new normal’’ and all the challenges it brings.
Trump leaves a legacy of supporters with critically low trust in government.