‘Rational people wouldn’t live here’ Is the West Coast ready for the Alpine Fault?
As new research reveals the Alpine Fault is more likely than previously thought to rupture in the next 50 years, Joanne Naish asks West Coasters: Are you ready?
Richard Morris moved to Hokitika from Scotland three years ago and is more ready for the Alpine Fault rupture than many people on the West Coast.
‘‘The first weekend of being here I said to the children ‘right let’s plan our route to high ground’, so we walked up to the airport and we all know to head up and meet there.’’
He, his wife and their two teenagers all have grab bags with essential supplies in case they need to leave at a moment’s notice. At home, they also have an impressive stash of emergency items, including water, freeze-dried food, first aid kits and camping gear.
‘‘Quite early on moving to New Zealand I learned how we ought to be doing our bit to be prepared and be a bit more self-reliant. The emergency services are going to be prioritising those who really need help so if we can look after ourselves they can help someone else.’’
Having never experienced an earthquake, or had the need to get ready before, Morris found everything he needed on the Government Get Thru website.
He is keenly aware the West Coast will be cut off from the world, not just for weeks but possibly months – in the event of a powerful Alpine Fault earthquake.
Power, water, sewage, internet and phone lines will be down, while highways and bridges will be significantly damaged.
No-one gets left behind at the Morris household, including their chihuahua Pickle.
‘‘We always keep an extra bag of food and a water bowl with our grab bags.’’
The Alpine Fault is New Zealand’s largest fault, spanning
600 kilometres from Fiordland to Marlborough. New research has shown the chances of it generating a damaging earthquake in the next
50 years are much higher than previously thought.
The research shows the probability of that earthquake happening before 2068 is about 75 per cent. It was previously thought to be about 30 per cent likely.
Scientists from Victoria University, the University of Otago, GNS Science, the University of California, and the United States Geological Survey have also calculated there is an 82 per cent chance the earthquake will be of
magnitude-8 or higher. Greymouth photographer Stewart Nimmo has grown up with the threat of the ‘‘big one’’ looming.
But like many New Zealanders, he is not prepared at home with an emergency stash.
‘‘My wife keeps telling me we need to get ready. We are definitely not as prepared as we should be.’’
He owns a gallery, studio and shop in a leased earthquakestrengthened heritage building.
He also owns one of 55 buildings on the Grey District Council’s register of earthquake-prone buildings.
The council requires building owners to supply engineering assessments by May 2020. Those assessed as less than 34 per cent of the standard will need to be demolished or strengthened within seven and a half years. According to the register, Nimmo’s vacant building is only 5 per cent of the standard.
Nimmo says he has plans to restore the red brick building, but it will be expensive.
He has already reinforced the veranda to ensure it is safe for the public to walk under.
‘‘It’s on Mawhera leasehold land, so it’s costing me quite a bit to have it sitting there empty, but it’s a beautiful old building and I’d love to restore it.’’
Mawhera Inc is Greymouth’s biggest landlord. It dates back to 1840 when Nga¯ i Tahu negotiated to keep more than 4000 hectares as native reserve, including central Greymouth, which it leases back to building owners.
Nimmo says many building
owners in town have done strengthening work, but some are reluctant to invest because they are on leasehold land. However, that might change with the current boom in property values.
‘‘The building we are in has been brought up to 67 per cent [of the building standard], so I’m hoping it will be up to the test.
‘‘We don’t know when the big one will hit. Whether it will be in my lifetime or my grandchildren’s lifetime, we just don’t know.’’
Nimmo’s employee, Mel Riddle,
says West Coasters are complacent about the risks.
‘‘Earthquakes are my worst fear but all my friends and family are so blase´ . They joke that they don’t need to get ready because they are all coming to my house.’’
After experiencing the Canterbury earthquakes in 2010 and 2011, Riddle got herself prepared at home.
‘‘It’s peace of mind. I got four clear fish crates and I got them loaded up with food, toilet paper, lights, batteries. I have a backpack
in my car. I have a route planned to get to high ground as quickly as possible.’’
Bakery owner Chris Blanchfield owns a row of buildings on Guinness St that are also on the council’s register.
He has done some earthquakestrengthening work on the bakery and cafe´ building, which was built in 1952. But he has been frustrated to receive conflicting assessments on a relatively new adjacent building, built in the 1990s.
‘‘If you look around town there are a lot of buildings I wouldn’t go into. A lot of them will be taken down because it is too expensive to fix them.’’
Grey mayor Tania Gibson says there has been ‘‘slow progress’’ in upgrading buildings in Greymouth because of affordability.
‘‘We have a lot of old masonry buildings that are an accident waiting to happen, but it is expensive to upgrade and hard to get finance because they are on Mawhera land, and it is hard to find tenants.’’
She questions why the Government requires endless reports, instead of providing more practical support.
The West Coast Emergency Management Group recently secured funding from the Government’s Resilience Fund for a $90,000 resilience strategy and $50,000 to create a household preparedness webtool by May 2022.
The chair of the group’s joint committee, Westland mayor Bruce Smith, says the Government has indicated the Coast needs a strategy before it can make specific requests for help.
‘‘We can plan, but we have to have a business case for things we want, and they have to align with a resiliency strategy.
‘‘So we will get consultants in and put a business plan [in] for extra fuel and communications. We need sufficient jet fuel and diesel. We have lots of helicopters and diggers but what happens when we run out of fuel?’’
The Westland District Council has approved $186,000 for five containers filled with medical supplies, food and satellite phones to be placed in small towns in rural Westland.
Smith says he has been lobbying the Government to move Franz Josef’s police station and fire station away from the fault line for years. The Alpine Fault runs directly through the town.
West Coast Regional Council emergency management and natural hazards director Claire Brown believes the region is wellprepared.
A multi-agency, South Islandwide plan includes a ‘‘crystal clear’’ process for making decisions and determining who is in charge when disaster happens.
‘‘The Alpine Fault won’t just be a West Coast event, it will be a New Zealand event.’’
However, Allan Wilson, who spent 39 years with Civil Defence on the West Coast, believes a West Coast-specific plan is needed.
‘‘We are not as prepared as we should be. I believe it requires all the emergency services, Civil Defence, the hospital, to have a combined plan and that hasn’t happened yet.’’
For example, during a multiagency exercise while he was controller, Civil Defence had to evacuate its operation centre. It planned to evacuate to the Westland Recreation Centre, but when it got there the district health board was using it as a morgue.
One of the worst-case scenarios is if a magnitude-8 earthquake happens in the middle of the day, and the old masonry buildings in Greymouth fall down.
‘‘The first priority would be rescue and that would be done by the fire service, Red Cross and Mines Rescue. We don’t have an Urban Search and Rescue team on the Coast, so they would have to come over from Christchurch.’’
He agrees the region needs a stockpile of fuel.
‘‘We have no backup fuel. Even if we could get it here by sea, we couldn’t get the fuel to shore because we have no pneumatic pump and we don’t have cranes big enough.’’
He worries particularly about Franz Josef, which straddles the Alpine Fault.
‘‘When the Alpine Fault goes Franz Josef will cease to exist. It will be like a towel flapping in the wind.
‘‘If we were rational people we wouldn’t live here.’’