Russian advance continues

Russian forces battled yesterday to surround the Ukrainian military’s last stronghold in a long-contested eastern province, as shock reverberated from a Russian air strike on a shopping mall that killed at least 18 people in the centre of the country two days earlier.

Moscow’s battle to wrest the entire Donbas region from Ukraine saw Russian forces pushing toward two villages south of Lysychansk while Ukrain’s troops fought to prevent their encirclement.

Britain’s defence ministry said Russian forces were making ‘‘incremental advances’’ in their offensive to capture Lysychansk, the last city in the Luhansk province under Ukrainian control following the retreat of Ukraine’s forces from the neighbouring city of Sievierodonetsk.

Russian troops and their separatist allies control 95% of Luhansk and about half of Donetsk, the two provinces that make up the mostly Russian-speaking Donbas.

The latest assessment by the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, said the Ukrainians were likely in a fighting withdrawal to seek more defensible positions while draining Russian forces of manpower and resources.

Avril Haines, US director of national intelligence, said Russia ‘‘may think time is on its side’’ due to the escalating costs borne by the West and fatigue as the war grows longer. The most likely scenario predicted by US intelligence, he said, is a ‘‘grinding struggle’’ in which Russia consolidates its hold over southern Ukraine by autumn.

The US correctly predicted Russia would invade Ukraine in February, but was wrong in assessing that it would quickly seize Kyiv. Speaking at an event in Washington yesterday, Haines said Russian President Vladimir Putin ‘‘has effectively the same political goals that he had previously, which is to say that he wants to take most of Ukraine’’ and push it away from Nato.

‘‘We perceive a disconnect between Putin’s near-term military objectives in this area and his military’s capacity, a kind of mismatch between his ambitions and what the military is able to accomplish,’’ he added.