Luxon’s support takes poll hit
National Party leader Christopher Luxon’s support in preferred prime minister rankings took a hit amid debate over a United States abortion ruling, a new poll suggests.
A Taxpayers’ Union poll, run by Curia Research and published by the lobby group yesterday, showed on the question of preferred prime minister, support for Luxon dropped 5.6% within a month, to 22.4% of respondents.
Support for Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern was up 1.5%, to 41.2%.
The poll was run between July 3 and 10, the week after Luxon faced renewed questions about the National Party’s policy on abortion – given MP Simon O’Connor’s celebration of the US Supreme Court’s Roe v Wade ruling.
The ruling ended constitutional protections for abortion in the US. Abortion is legal in New Zealand, and a law passed in 2020 removed abortion from the Crimes Act and liberalised access to services.
Luxon, who has described himself as ‘‘pro-life’’, said the Roe v Wade decision was ‘‘distressing for many women everywhere and I empathise with them’’.
O’Connor’s celebration of the ruling – a post on Facebook said ‘‘Today is a good day’’ – led to questions about what the National Party’s view on abortion was.
Luxon again pledged abortion laws would not be ‘‘re-litigated or revisited’’ under National.
As with many recent polls, the Taxpayers’ Union Curia poll showed both Labour and National were neck-and-neck when it came to having enough support, with likely coalition partners, to govern.
Labour was at 34.7% support, with a rise of 0.5% from the month prior. This compared to National’s 37%, a decrease of 0.4%.
If Labour were to form a coalition with the Green Party, at 8.5%, and the Ma¯ ori Party, at 3.7%, the coalition would have the same number of seats in the House as a National-ACT coalition.
ACT, with 10% support, rated the highest among minor parties.
Such an outcome would amount to a hung Parliament, if an election reproduced the poll results.
If the Ma¯ ori Party were to join with National-ACT – a seemingly remote prospect considering recent animosity between the ACT and Ma¯ori parties – this would allow National to govern.