Covid is surging, but there’s no need to panic
From being the best in the world during elimination, New Zealand now has one of the highest daily case rates per million. Covid is back in a big, disruptive and pain-in-theneck sort of way.
Admittedly, rates are cyclical – it is now winter here at the same time as cases are ticking up, but it is a salutary reminder that, ultimately, governments can’t outrun viruses.
In a miracle of modern science, the world got a vaccine up for Covid-19 in very short order. New Zealand had hefty restrictions and divisive (but mostly supported) mandates to drive the vaccine rate as high as possible and succeeded.
As a country, we paid our money, took our chance. There’s not much else to be done. There is no evidence that the voting public is hankering for more restrictions.
I am writing this column while isolating at home, having got my first confirmed bout of Covid-19. My wife and children got it a smidge over 90 days ago, meaning that we have all had to isolate back at home again.
The worst thing is the loss of taste. Life rather loses its lustre when, in addition to being crook, all you get from a bite is the sensation of salt and acidity, but without any of the flavours those things are meant to enhance.
My situation isn’t unusual, but it is a reminder of the flow-on effects of people getting infected again. More time off work, more children at home, more belttightening and so on.
Covid coming back isn’t, in itself, necessarily a big political problem. But coming at a period when the health system is under significant strain, due to winter flu and long-run staff shortages, is.
While Labour’s reforms should help ameliorate some staffing problems longer-term – at least, if they are competently managed – the fact is that the system is chronically and structurally understaffed.
If there is any area in which the wealth and income gap between New Zealand and Australia shows up in the provision of public services, it is in healthcare. In just one area – Pharmac – New Zealand spends about half as much on drugs per capita as the equivalent Australian system, the PBS, does. And Pharmac has had significant boosts under this Government.
More generally, health workers can’t be paid enough to be attracted and retained in sufficient numbers, especially compared to the country with whom we share a common labour market. And globally, there’s more demand for health staff because of the pandemic.
The ability of the economy to pay has been an issue since well before Labour came to office, but there appears to be little plan to try to make New Zealand richer to pay for better services.
The problem for Labour – and this now seems to be causing rising frustration – is that voters are no longer giving it credit for its Covid19 handling (the gains of 2020 were banked), but do seem to be critical about the consequences that are now here as a result: inflation and shortages especially.
This doesn’t mean that what was done two years ago was wrong. Hindsight is wonderful and, in the heat of the pandemic breaking out, the response, while radical, by and large seemed pretty good. The fact that much of the Western world did less dirigiste versions of the same and is now suffering similar consequences provides a level of cover, but little comfort.
The fact is that voters did give Labour credit – a whopping great line of it – in the 2020 election. What the Government is now being judged on is what has happened since. It is now more than two years since the first level 4 lockdown and 11 months since Delta arrived in New Zealand.
In the positive column, just about anyone who wants a job has one. But most people are also grappling with cost-of-living hikes and a future made far less certain by inflation and global turmoil.
And that includes Labour. Regardless of whether it leads a government after the next election, at least 20% of its MPs could be out looking for a job by then. It won more than 50% of the vote last time, and on most public polls it is now, generously, at 40% or less.
While a refresh of the Government’s economic message is clearly needed, the Covid approach seems basically proportional. Lockdowns are finished and, politically, any sort of new, population-wide restrictions would likely see more of those Labour MPs out hunting by the end of next year.
Politically, the only Covid number that matters is people showing up to hospital and how much strain that places on the system. It has been clear since the start of the year that, as far as gearing up hospitals and ICU beds for a big wave goes, the Government has not been very prepared.
While the number of people dying because of Covid is rising and has hit 758 since March 2020 (although hundreds of deaths are still to be coded), it doesn’t seem to be a great driver of political sentiment.
That’s probably, without being callous, because it isn’t that many. From March 2020 to 2022, more than 70,000 people died in New Zealand in total.
It also means that the bedrock of Labour’s Covid management argument – that we’ve saved lives – is turning to sand. Not because it is untrue – it clearly was true, especially early on in the pandemic – but because the situation has changed.
On Thursday, 23 people were reported as having died with Covid (defined as having had it in the past month). That number of cases a year ago would have been met with public panic. Now it is deaths, and a part of life.
The Government is doing the right thing by not panicking and listening to some of the more outlandish suggestions for controlling Omicron. Covid-19 Response Minister Ayesha Verrall’s announcement on Thursday that more free masks and RATs would be available, while not mandating masks in schools, seems proportionate.
But it does all make the traffic light system seem like it’s past its use-by date. The country is now moving only in one direction, and it isn’t towards more restrictions.
The Australians, who have mostly got rid of masking, are now dropping free RATs as well. Rightly or wrongly, they’ve effectively decided that, while infection is a problem, getting back to normal is a priority, that people will get Covid, and that’s just life.
The cost of living, job and life opportunities, and Covid disruption to lives and economic prospects are now the live issues. Covid being back is just another layer of winter grizzle to pile on top.