Why Taiwan is a flashpoint
Long a diplomatic powderkeg, Taiwan now threatens to become a military one. Eryk Bagshaw explains why.
An island 200 kilometres off the coast of China looms as the biggest international test of US President Joe Biden’s administration and Beijing’s relationship with the world. Characterised by its liberal democracy, resilient economy and the existential threat of invasion, Taiwan has lived under a cloud for more than half a century.
With Hong Kong subdued, Beijing has turned its attention to the final territory not in its control under the ‘‘One China policy’’, sending warplanes towards the Taiwan Strait every week in what is becoming a tense new normal for the island.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has vowed that the ‘‘historical task of the complete reunification of the motherland must be fulfilled’’.
Taiwan President Tsai Ingwen has called for allies to support Taiwan. ‘‘They should remember that, if Taiwan were to fall, the consequences would be catastrophic for regional peace and the democratic alliance system,’’ she said in October 2021.
So why does China have Taiwan in its sights? And what does Taiwan want?
Why are Taiwan and China at loggerheads?
Taiwan split from the mainland after years of civil war between two rival political forces: the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the Kuomintang. The Kuomintang fled to Taiwan in 1949, along with 2 million civilians. It established a government in Taipei after CCP leader Mao Zedong proclaimed the founding of the People’s Republic of China in Beijing.
China has never recognised Taiwan’s government and has set a deadline of 2049 for unification of the mainland with the island.
Taiwan’s government also claimed China as its territory under its constitution in 1949, creating a diplomatic minefield for foreign governments. The United Nations recognised Taiwan’s claim until 1971, before switching to China as diplomatic relations were established with the CCP.
‘‘Taiwan has not for one single second belonged to China,’’ says the former cochair of Taiwan’s foreign affairs and defence committee, Wang Ting-yu. ‘‘The Chinese Communist Party never had a single cent of tax paid from
Taiwan but for the past 40 years they have been using their diplomatic tactics and military threats to disturb Taiwan’s society.’’
The Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation found support for official independence for Taiwan, which could involve relinquishing its constitutional claim to the mainland, reached its highest level in July 2020. Some 54% of respondents said Taiwan should become officially independent, while 23.5% supported the status quo. Only 12.5% supported unifying with the mainland.
By July 2021, support for formal independence had fallen to 46.6%. Those supporting unification also dropped to 11.1%, while those in favour of maintaining the status quo rose to 26.4%.
But the Taiwanese government has maintained an ambiguous position on its international status to keep the peace. It has preferred to defend the status quo, which means it operates separately from China, rather than pushing for a formal declaration of independence, which could trigger a military response from Beijing.
In January 2021, China’s Ministry of National Defence spokesman, senior colonel Wu Qian, issued a stern warning to anyone considering going further. ‘‘We solemnly warn these Taiwan separatists: those who play with fire will get burnt, Taiwan secession means war.’’
That warning has since been repeated by Xi. ‘‘Those who play with fire will perish by it,’’ he told Biden in a phone call last month. ‘‘It is hoped that the US will be clear-eyed about this.’’
The tension has been ratcheted up further by a trip to Taiwan by US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi, which has been seen by Beijing as a de-facto endorsement of Taiwan’s government. Her visit has triggered rounds of military exercises by China in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, raising fears of an accidental conflict between the two superpowers.
Is Taiwan a country?
That depends on who you ask. Many countries do not recognise Taiwan as an independent nation since establishing diplomatic relations with Beijing.
Only 14 countries, including Nauru and Palau, recognise Taiwan as an independent government. For their trouble, they have no diplomatic contact with China. In September 2019, under the promise of economic investment and aid, Kiribati and the Solomon Islands switched their allegiance to Beijing.
Taiwan’s proximity to an increasingly assertive China puts it in a geopolitical pincer. The difficulty for many governments is how they defend a country they do not recognise.
Is Taiwan the next Hong Kong?
Hong Kong was handed back to China in 1997 after colonial occupation by the British. It was guaranteed a high degree of autonomy in its executive,
legislative and independent judicial power, but China has been accused of breaching the handover treaty by instituting national security laws that effectively wipe out Hong Kong’s political opposition.
Taiwan, where Tsai won a landslide election on a platform of remaining separate from China in January 2020, is a very different proposition.
Unlike Hong Kong, where China avoided sending in tanks to suppress dissent, taking Taiwan by force may be Beijing’s only option if it is to meet its target of ‘‘reunification’’.
Lowy Institute fellow Natasha Kassam says even the word ‘‘reunification’’ is a product of China’s propaganda department. Taiwan has never been under the control or jurisdiction of the CCP. ‘‘China tries to make others use reunification to make Taiwan’s seem inevitable to the outside world,’’ she says. ‘‘But unification or even annexation is more accurate.’’
Why is China threatening Taiwan but not attacking?
China has sharply escalated its military incursions over the Taiwan Strait. The median line that splits the disputed zone has been breached hundreds of times by Chinese bombers, fighter jets and surveillance aircraft.
The military sorties are becoming more persistent and more aggressive. Over one weekend in mid-January 2021, two dozen warplanes flew towards the strait. By May 2022, Taiwan had reported more than 460 incursions, an almost 50 per cent jump on the same five months in 2021.
Each time a Chinese plane crosses the median line, a Taiwanese plane is scrambled to meet it. Taiwan’s former national defence minister, Yen Teh-fa, estimated this cost $1.2b in 2020 alone.
The tactics are part of what is known as ‘‘grey zone warfare’’, where the goal is to wear down opposition rather than spark an immediate conflict. Tactics also include cyberattacks, propaganda and infiltration of proindependence sentiment.
Biden’s inauguration in January 2021 encouraged Beijing to push the envelope further, examining the new administration’s resolve after a fractious four years in US-China relations under Donald Trump.
Wang, the former foreign affairs and national defence committee co-chair, says in the short-term the greatest risk is the psychological threat of China’s grey-zone tactics undermining confidence in Taiwan’s own defence. ‘‘They can harass us, they can attack our remote islands and fire some missiles to scare the stock market, but if the Taiwanese psychological defensive line breaks, that is another scenario,’’ he says.
That is why the build-up of Taiwan’s defence is as much a military deterrent as it is a psychological boost to its 24m people. They have lived under a constant threat of attack for decades and will continue to do into the distant future.
The next five years are crucial. Why?
China has been rapidly expanding its military and naval power. But by Taiwan’s estimates, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) still does not have enough firepower to mount a successful invasion and China does not yet have the number of tank-landing ships required to land on Taiwan’s beaches, traverse hostile terrain, and occupy and hold the capital Taipei.
There are only a dozen beaches suitable for invasion of that scale, and Taiwan has spent decades building up defences on those beaches.
The US is also bolstering its arms sales to Taiwan, aiming to offer enough protection to at least act as a deterrent. In one deal, it sold $2.4 billion worth of rocket launchers, artillery and missiles to Taiwan in 2020.
‘‘China would have to ferry and sustain by sea and air an army large enough to seize and hold an island with 24m people,’’ the US former deputy assistant secretary of defence Elbridge Colby wrote in The Wall Street Journal in January 2021.
‘‘This might be feasible if the PLA attacks a Taiwan standing alone. But taking Taiwan backed up by a well-prepared US military is a far different proposition. Amphibious invasions against a capable, prepared defence are very hard.’’
How would the US respond if there was an attack?
Weeks before the end of the Trump presidency, the US government declassified a key document decades before it was due to be made public: its IndoPacific strategy.
It says the US will devise and implement a defence strategy capable of: ‘‘(1) denying China sustained air and sea dominance inside the ‘first island chain’ in a conflict; (2) defending the first island chain nations, including Taiwan; and (3) dominating all domains outside the first island chain.
‘‘The defence of Taiwan is in our own hands, and we are absolutely committed to that.’’
After his election win in 2020, Biden maintained his commitment to Taiwan was ‘‘rock solid’’. In October 2021, he went further by suggesting the US would intervene militarily if Taiwan was attacked by China. The comments were later walked back by the White House, which maintained that the US policy of ambiguity on whether it would defend Taiwan had not changed.
Then in May, Biden responded ‘‘yes’’ when he was asked by CNN if the US would defend Taiwan.
The White House later had to clarify again that the official US position had not changed.
How would Australia respond?
The Labor government has not indicated whether it will or won’t support military action if there is a war over Taiwan, but if conflict erupts it will have to think quickly about how it responds.
‘‘As an ally of the US, Australia would be under very significant pressure from Washington to support any US military action in the Taiwan Strait,’’ says Mark Harrison, a Taiwan expert from the University of Tasmania. ‘‘The Biden administration has also clearly signalled its intention to act in partnership with its allies.’’
The A$90b Aukus deal between the US, UK and Australia entrenched Australia’s role as a key alliance partner in the Indo-Pacific.
Paul Dibb, a former Australian defence intelligence official, says the assumption of Australian support in any defence of Taiwan has been locked in for decades. ‘‘Taiwan is an island and a vibrant democracy of 24m people. Does that ring any bells?
‘‘The real point is that, in the event that American troops are being killed across the Taiwan Strait and we don’t offer to support America, the future of the Anzus treaty will be at risk.’’ – Sydney Morning Herald
This piece was first published in January 2021 and has been updated to reflect developments.