‘Blockade’ tightens noose
Taiwan is bracing for a full-blown Chinese military blockade, with unprecedented live-fire drills in its territorial waters and air defence identification zone, in the aftermath of Nancy Pelosi’s visit.
The two-day trip to the selfgoverning island by the US House Speaker – the most senior American official to visit for a quarter of a century – was made in defiance of Pentagon guidance and has sent tensions spiralling between Washington and Beijing, setting the scene for a fresh round of brinkmanship.
Taiwan was forced to scramble fighter jets to intercept 27 Chinese military aircraft moments after Pelosi’s plane left its airspace, with 22 of the Chinese warplanes crossing the median line of the strait; an unprecedented encroachment.
Three days of military exercises by the People’s Liberation Army beginning today will amount to ‘‘a sea and air blockade of Taiwan’’, according to the defence ministry in Taipei, an escalation without recent precedent that will involve Chinese missiles being fired to within 16km of the Taiwanese coast.
The drills are a direct challenge to what Taiwan defines as its air defence identification zone, coastline and territorial waters. Co-ordinates released by China’s military indicate it will come far closer than it did during a similar standoff in 1995. The US responded then to China firing missiles towards Taiwan by sending two aircraft carriers to the region, one through the strait itself. The US has four warships on ‘‘routine deployments’’ east of Taiwan at present, among them the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier. China’s military has warned all international shipping and aircraft to avoid the drill areas for the next three days, a direct challenge to freedom of navigation.
‘‘Such an act equals to sealing off Taiwan by air and sea,’’ Captain Jian-chang Yu, Taiwan’s defence spokesman, said.
The G7 group of industrialised nations, which includes Britain, issued a statement condemning the drills.
China’s ‘‘escalatory response risks increasing tensions and destabilising the region’’, it said.
China’s foreign ministry insisted the exercises were necessary, adding that ‘‘in the struggle surrounding Pelosi’s Taiwan visit, the United States are the provocateurs, China is the victim’’.
The atmosphere of menace across the 180km-wide strait contrasted with the festive reception in Taipei for Pelosi, 82, a longtime China hawk. Her visit, met with banner-waving crowds, was a rare demonstration of foreign support for Taiwan in defiance of Beijing’s threats of retribution. After meeting President Tsai Ingwen she addressed Parliament and met pro-democracy activists from Hong Kong and the Chinese mainland, and a charity worker recently released from a Chinese jail.
Pelosi hailed Taiwan as ‘‘one of the freest societies in the world’’ and pledged solidarity. ‘‘Our delegation came to make unequivocally clear that we will not abandon Taiwan,’’ she said. ‘‘America’s determination to preserve democracy here in Taiwan and around the world remains ironclad.’’
Tsai decorated Pelosi with the ‘‘Order of Propitious Clouds with Special Grand Cordon’’ in recognition of her ‘‘unwavering support’’. Pelosi’s visit was a disruption of the delicate diplomatic tightrope Washington walks in its policy towards Taiwan, where defeated Nationalists set up a rival government to Beijing in 1949 after the communists’ victory in the civil war.
Taiwan held China’s seat at the UN until 1971, when recognition was transferred to Beijing. It became a democracy in 2000 and, although mostly unrecognised as a state, has the 21st-biggest economy in the world. It issues its own passports, operates its own military and is run by an elected president.
Since 1979 Washington has observed an official ‘‘one China’’ policy, recognising only the Beijing government.
At the same time, however, it maintains a ‘‘robust unofficial’’ relationship with the island, which includes selling it weapons.
It has also long stuck to a policy of ‘‘strategic ambiguity’’ whereby it is understood - but not stated - that it will come to Taiwan’s aid if it is attacked.
That policy, however, has crumbled into confusion under President Biden, who has publicly vowed to defend the island at least twice, only for officials to deny any change in the official approach. Critics say Pelosi’s visit serves only to expose the confusion and divisions between the White House and Congress on the issue.
China’s military exercises have been foreshadowed by cyberattacks against Taiwanese government websites and the announcement of sanctions on the import of fish, fruit and sand; a sharp reminder by Beijing of its status as the island’s largest trading partner.