More than just victory at stake for Foster
All Blacks coach Ian Foster is in the extraordinary position of having to win at least one of the two tests against the Springboks in South Africa to keep his job.
Last Saturday in an interview on Newstalk ZB, New Zealand Rugby chief executive Mark Robinson refused to guarantee the future of All Blacks coach Ian Foster beyond the South Africa series.
He did not spell out precisely what Foster needs to do over the next two weeks, but Stuff understands that NZ Rugby has indicated to the head coach that one win, at least, is required to secure his employment.
Even that might not be enough to see him through to the Rugby World Cup, although the remaining four Rugby Championship tests against Argentina and Australia – three of which are in New
Zealand – would give Foster the chance to put some more capital in the bank.
Conversely, if Foster fails in South Africa, a swift removal would give the incoming All Blacks coach two weeks to get his feet under the desk before the test against the Pumas on August 27.
Remarkably, that test is in Christchurch, which means that Scott Robertson’s first test in charge could be in front of an adoring home crowd.
But that’s in the future.
The pressing question is how Foster and the All Blacks will respond to the enormous pressure they are under.
There are two possible paths, although the prediction business is difficult because the All Blacks are also dealing with an external factor in the shape of a muscular Springboks side.
The players could emerge at Mbombela Stadium at 3am on Sunday (NZ time), with a steely determination to play for their coach and beat the Springboks with a combination of willpower and natural talent that still exists within the squad.
Or, filled with a sense of fatalism, they may be unable to go deep enough into their reserves to withstand the Springboks challenge.
It certainly felt like the second factor was at play when another New Zealand test coach, Robbie Deans, was in peril in 2013.
Deans’ Wallabies headed into the deciding test against the British and Irish Lions in Sydney in reasonable shape, but were thrashed 41-16 after speculation about Deans’ future ramped up on the eve of the test.
Deans was sacked the following week, and it subsequently emerged Rugby Australia had indeed been lining up his replacement before the third Lions test.
Yet, despite the intense public pressure Deans faced in the last two years of his time at the Wallabies, Stuff understands that at no point was he issued a win-or-else directive from his bosses.
In that sense, Foster’s situation is even more intense.
Despite the sackings of Brad Mooar and John Plumtree it may be that Robinson – who is understood to be in South Africa – has more hard conversations ahead.
Nestled in the rolling countryside of White River, a rural town on the outskirts of the city they once called Nelspruit, now Mbombela, sits the Ingwenyama Conference and Sport Resort. Located on a picturesque estate, not far from the fringes of the vast Kruger National Park, it’s part sanctuary, part oasis.
This week it is also home to a sporting team under siege, a perfect place for the All Blacks to hole up while they lick their wounds from the history-making home series defeat to Ireland, and regain strength for two mighty battles ahead against the world champion Springboks.
Once the rugby planet’s mightiest team, consistently atop the world rankings, collecting test victories in indecent quantities, the All Blacks have fallen on tough times. After the 2-1 series defeat to the Irish – the first time they have dropped a multi-game matchup at home in 28 years – the outfit New Zealand Rugby constantly tell us is one of the world’s premium sporting brands has lost four of its last five, with no respite in sight.
Up next are a Springboks crew at, or near, the peak of their powers. They won their third World Cup nearly three years ago, and they continue to operate at an extremely high level.
The Boks are big, brutal, efficient and committed. They are not a team you want to be playing when your confidence is at a low ebb and it seems like the world is baying for your blood.
This is the scenario facing Ian Foster’s All Blacks this week as they tick away preparations for the first of back-to-back test matches against the South Africans at Mbombela Stadium.
It’s why, in so many ways, Ingwenyama, with its relative isolation, with its purpose-built sporting facilities (for the 2010 football World Cup), with its multiple barriers to the hustling, bustling world outside, is perfect for these backs-to-the-wall Blacks. They are holed up, gathering their forces and ready to break the siege that has seemingly surrounded them.
‘‘It’s certainly different,’’ said skipper Sam Cane when asked if the isolated environment helped the team.
‘‘It helps in the sense that some days we could be spending up to an hour and a-half on the bus to and from training and gym sessions. It’s all on site, and has been good for us. It’s an awesome facility.’’
What’s more, the way the All Blacks have set themselves up at Ingwenyama further removes them from the outside world. Barriers are set up, with security on hand, preventing other guests at the resort from entering their zone, which includes the massive gymnasium, the training field, their own restaurant and several conference rooms. Even the pesky media staying at the facility are denied access, which must please the All Blacks a lot.
Right now their own company suits these All Blacks just fine. It is them against the world, and it must seem like the world has their number.
Foster is a coach under immense pressure. Somehow he has survived the first purge post-Ireland, when his two senior
assistants were both unceremoniously dumped, but while he was journeying to the republic his boss at NZ Rugby notably refused to endorse him beyond these twin tests.
He has been spectacularly unsuccessful, losing seven of his 24 tests thus far, winning 16, with a draw. Worryingly, their record against fellow top-5 teams in the world is an abysmal 2-5. And on his watch, the All Blacks have given every impression of being a declining force.
Barring a dramatic turnaround over the next fortnight, Foster’s grip on the coach’s job looks tenuous.
Others, too, are under the gun. Skipper Cane has copped criticism, for his leadership and level of play. He said this week it had got somewhat feral. ‘‘It’s probably harder on loved ones,’’ he said of a strata of comment he tries to stay away from.
Other senior, normally reliable All Blacks have struggled for form, and, really, through July only the incomparable Ardie Savea and the dynamic Will Jordan could be truly proud of their body of work. There has been widespread recognition from the players since the Wellington defeat to Ireland that if this thing is to be turned around, the ball is very much in their court.
So, in a country where the siege was once an important warfare tactic, the All Blacks are very much a team which has circled the wagons, drawn themselves in tight, and determined to come out firing when they have to.
On Sunday, the All Blacks must uncircle the wagons and come out firing. Reality awaits, and defeat is frankly unthinkable.