Coalition allies have leverage, polls show
Voters duly repaid Labour for its handling of the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic, providing the party with an unprecedented outcome at the 2020 election: 50 per cent of the vote, wins in 46 electorates and 65 MPs.
A repeat of this result is more than unlikely. According to current polling, Labour can expect to lose its sizeable majority in the coming election, with possibly 20 or so MPs out of a job.
At stake for National is the opportunity to rebuild its now 33-strong caucus and, crucially, bring in new MPs who provide the party with two needed qualities: diversity and experience.
Polling in recent months has placed Labour and National roughly neck-and-neck, with the minor parties likely making the difference in who can form a coalition Government.
Taking a rough average of six polls since April, if the election were to be held tomorrow a possible outcome for the two major parties could be National at 38% of the vote, with 47 MPs, and Labour at 36%, with 45.
The minor parties – Green, ACT, and Te Pa¯ ti Ma¯ ori – may hold the balance of power come 2023, but do not appear likely to have major shifts in their numbers of seats, according to the polls.
Of course, a year or so out from the election, much remains uncertain. For instance, which way electorates swing could make some difference to this – there are 10 electorates Labour won from National in 2020 where they hold a margin of fewer than 3000 votes.
‘‘There’s probably 10 constituency seats that are likely to go,’’ said Shane Te Pou, a former Labour activist and political commentator.
Ben Thomas, a public relations consultant who has worked for National, said all the electorates lost by National to Labour in 2020 would be ‘‘in play’’.
Labour will no doubt reshuffle its list before the 2023 election, but applying the poll results to Labour’s list shows there are a raft of backbenchers whose first term in the House could be their only term.
Among those in a vulnerable position could be list MPs Angela Roberts, Lemauga Lydia Sosene and Dan Rosewarne, who arrived at Parliament last week to replace former Cabinet minister Kris Faafoi.
There are many Labour MPs now holding formerly safe National seats, including Emily Henderson (Whanga¯rei), Sarah Pallett (Ilam), Shanan Halbert (Northcote), Terisa Ngobi (O¯ taki) and Gaurav Sharma (Hamilton West).
Te Pou said Halbert was very popular locally. However, he did not think Sharma would hold Hamilton West, which had been a National seat from 2008.
Other electorate MPs, such as Tracey McLellan (Banks Peninsula), Neru Leavasa (Takanini), Arena Williams (Manurewa) and Barbara Edmonds (Mana), are ensconced in safer Labour seats, so a lower list ranking is less of a concern.
Te Pou said the backbenchers should be thinking of two strategies: Working hard to win their electorate seat and the possibility of moving to an electorate seat if existing Labour MPs retire.
Some higher-ranked MPs could lose seats claimed in 2020 also, including Vanushi Walters (Upper Harbour), Priyanca Radhakrishnan (Maungakiekie), and Willow-Jean Prime (Northland). Prime won Northland by the smallest margin of the election: 163 votes.
‘‘It’s often in those regional seats people will give the member of Parliament a second go,’’ Te Pou said of Prime’s prospects.
For National, the 2023 election presents an opportunity to regain lost ground. The party had 56 MPs after the 2017 election; today it has 33. Thomas said the party would, at worst, gain 12 new MPs.
National’s candidates have yet to be chosen. The party’s selection process has come under scrutiny since 2020, after instances of new MPs and candidates getting wrapped in scandals of their own making.
Thomas said National Party leader Christopher Luxon had been upfront about the party needing more diversity. ‘‘In particular, he means more women, more Ma¯ ori. Those are the two big ones where you probably think that, National doesn’t particularly look like New Zealand.’’
Also, Thomas said, Luxon was facing a similar predicament to Labour Party leader Jacinda Ardern at the 2017 election: The possibility of putting together a Cabinet with a group ‘‘pretty inexperienced’’ in Government.
‘‘He’s got a high-performing front bench in Opposition, but he doesn’t have a lot of experience in terms of Cabinet, just as Jacinda Ardern did in 2017.’’
The party may look to recruit people with the capability to enter Cabinet early, such as Labour did with Dr Ayesha Verrell – who entered Cabinet right after being elected in 2020.