High stakes, high pressure on highveld
After the missteps of November and misfires of July, the All Blacks must attempt to right the listing ship with a performance out of the box against the unforgiving South Africans in Mbombela tomorrow (NZT).
It will not be easy. That is the understatement of the year. After four defeats in their last five, these New Zealanders are down on form, confidence, cohesion and a winning mentality. Let’s face it, they are flat-out down, period.
Things were so bad that New Zealand Rugby took the unprecedented step of sacking two assistant coaches (John Plumtree and Brad Mooar) little more than six months after they had been extended. Make no mistake, that was an all-out-of options move.
Many in the public believed NZ Rugby had not gone far enough in cleaning house.
But that’s a dialogue for another time as head coach Ian Foster deserves the clear air to go about this tricky turnaround mission without attacks on his flank.
As reported by Stuff, it has been made clear he requires a ‘‘positive’’ result in South Africa (the second test follows seven days later at rugby citadel Ellis Park). No pressure, Foz.
The coach is not without hope of saving his skin – if the numbers are any guide.
The All Blacks have not lost in the republic since 2014 (that’s four victories on the bounce) and have won nine of their last 12 (two losses, one draw) against the fearsome Boks.
In recent times, they’d been the kryptonite to these rugby supermen.
But there are fine lines in play. In the seven tests since the infamous 57-0 drubbing in Albany in 2017, six have been decided by two points or fewer, with the only ‘‘blowout’’ being the 23-13 New Zealand victory to open the 2019 World Cup. We all know how that turned out.
And these South Africans are no mugs, despite their unflattering record against their greatest foe. They achieved two important peaks the All Blacks were unable to scale in recent years, claiming their third World Cup crown in Japan and defeating the British and Irish Lions in a series.
They are also purpose-built to counter the New Zealanders, with that massive pack, ironclad defensive line, magnificent aerial attack and rigid adherence to the game-plan.
It’s often said the Boks are a one-trick pony, but boy is it a heck of a trick. Foster declared that a fallacy: ‘‘What they do well, they do really well. You don’t become world champions if you’re not proficient in a whole lot of areas. They’re a great team.’’
Indeed. And this is not an All Blacks team operating anywhere near peak efficiency. To even compete they are going to have to find a level that has, frankly, deserted them of late. It’s possible – the class lurks within – but you could not say probable.
There is a lot to fix, and it is difficult to see that a couple of days in Wellington, and a week holed up behind the security barriers at their rural estate in White River would have provided the requisite time.
Who knows? Maybe Jason Ryan can work a miracle with the pack, and maybe Foster can pare back the attack enough to regain its functionality.
But if you were a betting type, you would favour the home side (and even the Kiwi oddsmakers do). The Boks pack has few, if any, weaknesses. The front row will rumble forward relentlessly, inspired by hooker Malcolm Marx’s 50th test milestone; Eben Etzebeth and Lood de Jager form the best lock combination in the world; and that loose trio, headed by inspirational skipper Siya Kolisi and the beastly Pieter-Steph du Toit, ticks every box.
The backs-to-the-wall All Blacks? Well, they have Ardie Savea playing the rugby of his life, to no avail right now. The remainder of the pack hardly instil fear in any hearts.
If you’re of a nervous disposition – and a few Kiwi rugby fans have that as their default setting – then you might look at that front row, with a third-string starting tighthead who has started two tests, a second-year hooker making just his second run-on appearance, and a loosehead still establishing himself in this arena, with their combined 47 caps (compared to South Africa’s 153), and wonder.
There is a lot on Sam Whitelock to lead a lineout turnaround, on Akira Ioane to uncork one of his inspirational efforts at No 6, and on the scrum to yield not an inch.
While they’re at it, it would be handy if Beauden Barrett could reemerge from his shell, Aaron Smith kick better, Rieko Ioane make some sort of impact and Will Jordan and Caleb Clarke get a ton of ball in their hands.
The last word, of course, should go to Foster: ‘‘We don’t like losing, just like everyone, so that always creates a lot of edge and reflection.
‘‘We know we can play better, but you don’t do that by worrying about who you’re playing against, you do that by honing down and getting excited about playing how we want to play,’’ he said.