More floods are inevitable. More flood disasters aren’t

Those who study natural hazards often say there is no such thing as a ‘‘natural’’ disaster. Natural hazard events such as floods are inevitable.

Whether they create a disaster depends on the many decisions we’ve made as a society, long before it started raining.

Were people located in harm’s way? Did they have the means to make themselves safer? Did they have the information they needed? Were our response systems ready?

Auckland has experienced several damaging storm and flood events in recent years, notably the series of storms that flooded New Lynn in 2017 and the damaging winds in April 2018 that saw 120,000 households lose power.

Last Friday’s storm was unprecedented for Auckland, in terms of rainfall intensity and the widespread impacts.

Yet the lessons from previous events were identified at the time. Were they learned and implemented to increase Auckland’s preparedness and reduce the known risks?

As climate change worsens, we’ll see more of these types of events.

We need to invest now in future resilience to lessen the scale of disruption and make recovery faster. This means reassessing the systems supporting our cities and towns to understand how we can be better prepared.

This has implications for planning, design, building and engineering, through to community engagement, emergency management, communications and welfare.

What could a more resilient Aotearoa New Zealand look like? Let’s imagine.

We plan well, so new homes and buildings are out of harm’s way.

We have developed fair ways of retreating from exposed locations we built in earlier times when the hazards were not considered adequately.

Our urban areas are designed with porous surfaces and green spaces to soak up excess water.

We invest in resilient infrastructure so transport, water, power and communication networks hold up in extreme weather, or can be quickly restored.

People receive timely and meaningful weather warnings, and have the information they need to plan, prepare and respond.

Mā ori communities are empowered to plan and prepare in accordance with their culture, knowledge and aspirations.

We support the most vulnerable people in our communities, to help them reduce their exposure to dangerous hazards.

Researchers are working with a wide range of agencies and groups, and delivering knowledge and tools to help realise a resilient New Zealand.

Let’s look at a few specific examples.

A research team led by Dr Sally Potter of GNS Science has conducted research into the most effective ways to communicate hazard warnings.

It found that if agencies include information on the impacts (such as the potential to flood roads or take out power) as well as the weather itself (ie rainfall intensity or wind speeds), this can help people relate to and act on the warning.

We need to invest now in future resilience to lessen the scale of disruption and make recovery faster

Much has been said about housing developments being built in flood-prone areas. Research from Dr Judy Lawrence and others has shown we don’t need to wait for the new Strategic Planning Act and Climate Adaptation Act to address this issue.

Their guidance shows how councils can use existing legislation to control development and avoid further exposure to climate risk.

The infrastructure networks that support our daily lives are interconnected and complex.

Civil engineering researchers at the universities of Auckland and Canterbury have identified how ‘‘loss of service’’ can occur due to a damaged component, then spread within a network and into other networks that rely on that service (such as loss of power impacting a wastewater network).

These findings can help improve the resilience of the networks and the communities they service.

When decision-makers adopt solutions that are based on research, we get closer to our goal.

Unless we adapt to our new reality, we will constantly be in clean-up and recovery mode. We will fall behind in our ability to maintain liveable cities, towns and infrastructure.

Research tells us that for every dollar invested in reducing disaster risk, we save at least $6 on clean-up and rebuild costs after a big event.

More importantly, we avoid widespread human suffering that can have ripple effects for decades.

Last weekend demonstrated the power of collective action in responding to crises – neighbours, family and friends helping each other, and local leaders and volunteers working round the clock to meet their communities’ needs.

We need a similar collective approach in choosing to make resilience and risk reduction a priority, before the next big storm arrives.