Blues face nightmare draw
ANALYSIS: As if Super Rugby isn’t hard enough, the Blues have been handed a nightmare draw for the 2018 season.
Part of that comes from being the supposedly weak link in the stacked New Zealand conference, and having to play each of their local rivals twice.
But their travel arrangements are also something of a nightmare.
It’s not the trip to Japan that will worry Tana Umaga and the Blues, but having to return home from the Land of the Rising Sun for a home clash with the Highlanders.
Me oh my, they won’t like that at all.
Looking at the form guide from the 2017 season, I calculated the strength of schedule (SOS) of New Zealand’s Super Rugby teams in 2018. Simply put, it’s a calculation of how many wins their opponents had in the 2017 season.
The Blues have the toughest outlook, with an SOS of 0.63 for their upcoming 16 game season.
To put that in simpler terms, their average opponent would be expected to win 10 of 16 games during the season. On average, it’d like the Blues playing the Sharks week in week out during 2018.
Part of their horror schedule is a game against the Lions in Johannesburg in week four, which could well be the toughest away trip in Super Rugby.
They do get to skip playing Australia’s top team, the Brumbies, but let’s be honest, you’d never shy away from that journey.
Add to that the second toughest travel schedule of Kiwi teams, and it looks like being a tough one for the Blues.
They will travel roughly 51,400 kilometres across the globe, spending about 90 hours in airports and airplanes between February and July. That’s almost four full days of travel.
The team with the biggest travel commitment will be the Chiefs, but only by about 250 kilometres over their northern rivals.
Add in time spent bussing to Auckland Airport for international journeys, and that number would rise.
To counter their travel commitments, the Chiefs have the easiest playing schedule of New Zealand teams, with an SOS of just 0.56.
Again, New Zealand teams have a reasonably high SOS because of the eight games they play against New Zealand sides, but the Chiefs get off lightly by not having to play the Lions in 2018.
Unfortunately they don’t get to play the woeful Rebels, either. Swings and roundabouts.
It’s the Highlanders who have reason for joy and angst for the 2018 season. On one hand, they will have less travel than their rivals at about 37,700km, although the trip to Christchurch for international flights will be a drain.
Their strength of schedule is the second toughest, however, owing partly to being the only Kiwi team not to face the Sunwolves. They also miss out on playing the Jaguares, who were the second worst team in the South African conference.
For the two most recent champions, the Crusaders and Hurricanes, they have the best of both worlds.
The Crusaders have a 0.56 strength of schedule, while travelling approximately 42,850km during the season. They’ll spend about 80 hours in airports and on flights.
Further north, the Hurricanes have a 0.58 strength of schedule, and will travel about 43,400km during the season. That means an extra hour or so in transit compared with the Crusaders.