More lambs expected this spring
Lamb numbers are expected to be between 5-10 per cent higher this season than last, Silver Fern Farms says.
This equates to about 20 million lambs, the meat processor said, and could be good news for farmers because demand from China and the United States is strong.
Cattle numbers are tipped to be similar or slightly up, with some of the retentions out of the dairy herd last year expected to boost bull and even heifer numbers.
‘‘We expect lamb numbers to be up this coming season. All the feedback we are receiving is that the North Island in particular has seen good lambing,’’ chief executive Dean Hamilton said in a market forecast.
Hamilton described the overall market for red meat as ‘‘mixed’’ for the coming season, with beef prices expected to come under pressure partly because Australia and the US were rebuilding their herds.
Lamb returns would be good as chilled supplies entered Europe in the early part of the season, but would taper off as frozen exports took over in the latter part.
Venison had improved in the last few years to where it was now nearing the $10 per kilogram mark, buoyed by good US demand.
‘‘We expect venison numbers processed to be similar to the current season at around 280,000 - 300,000 as the national herd continues to slowly rebuild,’’ Hamilton said.
Meat Industry Association (MIA) chief executive Tim Ritchie said the markets were looking healthy, and might show some improvement on last year.
For the year to the end of June, exports for all red meat were worth $7 billion, $600 million less than in the previous year.
Beef receipts fell by $400m for three reasons: beef prices declined, the New Zealand dollar rose and volumes fell. It was a similar story for sheepmeat, which was down in volume and dropped in value by $130m.
Ritchie said exports were vital to the sector, with 92 per cent of sheepmeat production and 83 per cent of beef production exported to over 120 countries. Open and predictable market access was the key to economic success.
He singled out Japan as an important high value beef market but where tariffs remained very high, yet competitors such as Australia (which has a free trade agreement) enjoy a significant tariff advantage.
The TPP 11 trade negotiations promises to deliver better access to the lucrative Japanese market.
Access to Indonesia was improving after New Zealand won a World Trade Organisation case last year, but it will take a lot to recover to the position of 2010, when Indonesia was New Zealand’s second largest beef market, taking 48,823 tonnes worth $185 million.
India, which is the world’s largest beef exporter - of buffalo beef - undercuts New Zealand in the Indonesian market where it caters to poorer consumers.
Meanwhile there is still no resolution to problems in the Russian market, where officials in February claimed to have found the feed additive ractopamine in some samples of New Zealand beef.
Ractopamine is not registered in New Zealand for use in beef animals.