Football rankings count for little some big guns miss out
ANALYSIS: Some established football nations will be missing from the Fifa World Cup finals in Russia. The Netherlands, Italy, Chile and the United States are all ranked among the world’s top 32 teams, but won’t be attending the 2018 showpiece.
According to the Fifa world rankings, last updated on October 16, New Zealand are a lowly 122nd yet still have a shot at qualification after drawing with the 10th-ranked team Peru. Meanwhile the ninth-best team in the world Chile, Italy (15th), the Netherlands (20th) and the United States (27th) won’t be attending one of the world’s biggest sporting events.
The concept is inconceivable in a rugby-mad nation where it would be like the world’s ninthranked team Fiji missing out on the Rugby World Cup, while the closest comparison to Saturday’s 0-0 result between the All Whites and Peru would be 10th-ranked Argentina drawing with 103rdranked rugby minnows American Samoa. Chile Chile finished sixth in the 10-team Conmebol confederation, one place behind Peru, although both teams finished their 18-game campaigns tied on 26 points. Chile won eight matches, while Peru won seven, but edged their rivals by a goal difference of +2.
Chile won the Copa America in 2015 and 2016 and have made the round-of-16 at the last two World Cups. Italy Italy were bundled out by Sweden yesterday and will miss their first tournament since 1958.
They have made 18 appearances at the World Cup and have won four titles, to sit second equal on the list of all-time winners, with their most recent title coming in 2006.
Italy finished second in Group G in Europe, behind Spain, winning seven of their 10 games to make the playoff match.
A group stages exit was all Italy could manage at both the 2010 and 2014 tournaments, picking up a win over England in 2014, before going down against Costa Rica and Uruguay.
They also drew with New Zealand’s All Whites in 2010. The Netherlands The three-time World Cup finalists were runners-up in 2010, but have struggled to recapture their form in recent seasons.
They finished third at the 2014 World Cup, but failed to qualify for Euro 2016.
The Dutch bowed out in the group stages of European qualification, finishing Group A in third spot behind France and Sweden. United States The US were bundled out in the final hexagonal stages of Concacaf, finishing fifth out of six teams, behind Mexico, Costa Rica, Panama and Honduras.
They finished third at the 1930 tournament, but since then have only been a World Cup regular since 1990, until now.
They made the 2002 quarterfinals and the round of 16 in 2010 and 2014. How are rankings calculated? Football rankings are a complicated beast, with New Zealand struggling due to a lack of meaningful matches against strong teams.
There are 211 teams in the rankings and points are accumulated for each international match played.
Points are allocated for each international ‘‘A’’ match result (win, lose, draw), with World Cup finals matches worth more than friendlies.
An opposition strength multiplier is calculated (200 – ranking position)/100), while the regional strength of both teams in a game also a factor, with teams from stronger competitions like Conmebol and Uefa, given a higher weighting than Oceania teams.
The regional strength multiplier equals the average weighting of the competitions both teams in a match are in.
The assessment period points last for four years, with a heavier weighting given to more recent games.
Ranking points = Result points x Match status x Opposition strength x Regional strength.