Dairy herds may change from black to brown

In coming years, we are likely to see the colour of New Zealand dairy cows change from predominantly black and white to a mix containing more brown and brindle. It will be a response to changes in the relative price of protein and fat.

Black-and-white friesian cows produce about 1.2 kilograms of fat for every kilogram of protein. In contrast, the brown jerseys produce about 1.4kg of fat for each kilogram of protein. Jersey milk is also richer with less water. Jersey milk is about

5.7 per cent fat whereas friesian milk is about 4.5 per cent.

For many years, protein has been worth a lot more than fat, but in the last two years that has changed.

Milk protein prices are the lowest they have been for many years whereas fat prices are at record highs. This is the reason butter is now so expensive in our supermarkets.

There are multiple reasons that fat and butter have come back into favour, but a key one is that the public has become convinced that butter is no longer the health demon it was portrayed to be.

Given that natural water in milk is just a nuisance for manufacture of long-life products, New Zealand has bred a different type of cow compared to elsewhere in the world, where payments are often on a per-litre basis. New Zealand cows might look the same as cows elsewhere but they produce thicker milk.

Fonterra and other companies base the payments for fat and protein on a three-year rolling average of market price relativities. Accordingly, these effects will be increasingly felt in coming years, with this year really just the start.

Changing the breed of the cows is something farmers are not talking about widely just yet.

It will only be when they see discounts coming through into their milk payments over the next two years that it will come to the fore in their thinking.

Many farmers already have kiwicross cows, which are a mix of friesian and jersey, so they are already on the journey.