The indicators tell a story
No-one wants to see our economy going backwards. What we have in this country has been hard won and built up over many years of careful planning, diligent budgeting and sound financial management – and we do not want to see it squandered.
Unfortunately there are some very worrying clouds gathering on the economic horizon.
I’m concerned at the impact that this could have on our country, but more particularly on places like Southland and Central Otago.
There have been negative economic indicators coming to the fore of late including an ANZ business confidence survey which showed that levels were at their lowest ebb since 2008 – the midst of the Global Financial Crisis.
That same survey showed that, in the South Island, small business confidence has fallen from 11 per cent in March of this year, to just 4 percent in June – a nine year low.
A Westpac McDermott Miller quarterly regional economic confidence survey for this region also showed that consumer confidence dropped significantly in Southland from 33 percent in March, to 13 percent in June 2018.
While another survey, indicating activity in the Otago-Southland manufacturing sector, is at the lowest level in three years. The BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index, in Otago and Southland, showed that levels of activity declined from 58.6 points in May, to 41.9 in June.
I admit that numbers and surveys are not always accurate, but there does seem to be a consistency here that can’t be ignored.
Small business operators tell me they have significant concerns around the Government’s proposed industrial relations reforms, which will wind back the clock strengthening union powers and pitting employers against employees.
They fear these planned reforms will not be good for the economy and will mean fewer jobs for people in places like Southland and Central Otago, and less competitive businesses.
Ending the starting-out wage, removing 90 day trials for businesses with more than 20 staff, reducing flexibility, and 70s style standardised wages bargaining, will all increase risks and costs for small and medium-sized businesses.
Increased fuel costs and taxes are another issue putting pressure on Southern and Central Otago people and local businesses.
Statistics New Zealand has published information on the price rises we have seen in New Zealand over the past year, with petrol being the big mover up 10 percent, or 20c, in a single year.
Another concern for businesses in the Otago and Southland region is the difficulty in finding skilled employees with the Government’s immigration changes not helping at all.
Businesses simply can’t function if they don’t have the skilled staff to employ.
I feel for the people of Southland and Central Otago and what the future holds.
Economists are now predicting New Zealand’s economic growth could drop to as low as 1.5 per cent, at the same time the world economy is forecast to grow at around 3.9 per cent, in the coming year. When the economy is growing wages and jobs increase, we can build infrastructure, and invest more in public services. But when the economy is not growing – we cannot manage without borrowing more or raising taxes.
No one wants to see that happening.
Jacqui Dean is the MP for Waitaki. 1. Which city has the highest per capita Ma¯ori population: Gisborne, Whanga¯rei or Rotorua?
2. The Fiat Cinquecento is better known in New Zealand as what?
3. In 1902, London burglar Harry Jackson became the first criminal to be convicted on the basis of what new police technique?
4. Colin Kaepernick is a controversial figure in which American sport?
5. What is the first name of Kath’s husband in the Australian TV comedy series Kath and Kim?
6. Tess Durbeyfield is the central character in what classic English novel?
7. What is the occupation of characters named Minogue and O’Leary in the TV comedy series Wellington Paranormal? 8. Cavendish, Lacatan, senorita and goldfinger are varieties of what fruit?
9. What is the meaning of the Latin phrase pro bono publico?
10. Who sang in a 1968 hit that being good wasn’t always easy, no matter how hard she tried?
Correction: Yesterday’s quiz wrongly stated that Dubai is the capital of the United Arab Emirates. The UAE capital is Abu Dhabi. Letters are welcome, but writers must provide their name, address and telephone number as a sign of good faith – pseudonyms are not acceptable. So that as many letters as possible can be published, each letter should be no more than 250 words. We reserve the right to edit letters for length, sense, legal reasons and on grounds of good taste. Please send your letters to: The Editor, The Southland Times, PO Box 805, Invercargill; fax on (03) 214 9905; or email to letters@stl.co.nz