McKenzie: Fallback or fullback for ABs?

There is a well-known quote whose origins are disputed but whose wisdom is not. ‘‘When the facts change I change my mind.’’

It was originally thought to belong to an economist but it works well in any field.

For the All Blacks, it should mean this: Jordie Barrett has not worked out as well at fullback as we thought and it still is Damian McKenzie’s best position.

The All Blacks should pick him there against the Wallabies in Japan on Saturday, although it is likely they will not.

However, the brilliant Chief is too good not to use, which seems to be his fate if Richie Mo’unga has gone past him in the pecking order.

The All Blacks have got the option of playing Ben Smith at No 15 with Waisake Naholo on the right wing. However, the other model – with Smith at No 14 – still holds appeal.

What is harder to justify is that the younger Barrett is the best option at No 15 in that configuration.

Jordie Barrett has huge potential. At the start of the year it looked like this could be his season. However, it is perhaps becoming a little unclear about what his best position might be.

During the Eden Park Bledisloe test match, he had a clear run to the tryline near the corner flag but was run down by Wallabies No 10 Bernard Foley.

The issue is not his mistake against the Springboks, it’s the lack of out-and-out pace.

McKenzie is far the better counter-attacker – in fact, that contest is not even close.

But what about Barrett’s height, you say? It is a valid point that has serious value in test rugby where defusing the high ball is so important.

But it is not as if McKenzie is weak here. And the judgment must be: does McKenzie’s electric running not begin to outweigh the fact he is a head shorter than the Hurricane?

The other factor at play would be the apparent reversal of selection philosophy that would have to take place for McKenzie to be picked at No 15 again.

He has just spent an entire campaign at No 10 for the Chiefs,

‘‘McKenzie has been left looking a bit like a ship without a port.’’

to the contentment of the All Blacks selectors. However, they have already quietly changed their thinking at No 10.

It wasn’t quite an article of faith but at the start of the year the All Blacks said Beauden Barrett was going to play 80 minutes at No 10 – the other parts of the puzzle would move around him. But with the rise of Mo’unga it appears that Barrett is again being viewed as a second-half fullback.

That has been a wise switch, but as a consequence McKenzie has been left looking a bit like a ship without a port.

You have to feel for him. Within a matter of months he has gone from being groomed as the back-up No 10 to potentially sitting outside the preferred 23, through no fault of his own.

So the solution to that issue is change the way he is viewed, from a No 10 who can play No 15 to a No 15 who can cover No 10.

So the All Blacks selectors would have to make a second U-turn from earlier in the year.

But what did we say at the beginning? When the facts change, so should minds.

And the facts, at No 10 and No 15, have changed.

GETTY IMAGES Damian McKenzie, right, now looks out of step in the All Blacks’ backline thinking with Richie Mo’unga, left, and Beauden Barrett seemingly more in favour. Inset, McKenzie makes a break during the test against Australia at Eden Park in August.