War a prospect with hard Brexit

It was either ignorant or irresponsible for those campaigning for Brexit two years ago to claim that the Irish border would not be a problem. In fact, it may lead to a catastrophic ‘no deal’ Brexit in which the United Kingdom crashes out of the EU without an agreement of any kind.

Both the British negotiators and their EU counterparts say that the deal is ‘‘95 per cent agreed’’, but the other five per cent is the border between the Republic of Ireland (an EU member ) and Northern Ireland (part of the UK and therefore soon NOT part of the EU). Time is running out, and agreement on that last five percent is far from certain.

The border has been invisible since the signing of the Good Friday agreement in 1998 ended 30 years of bloody conflict between the Protestant and Catholic communities in Northern Ireland. Three thousand people had been killed, but the situation had reached stalemate. The Good Friday deal let both sides accept that fact.

For the (Catholic) nationalists in Northern Ireland, an open border with the (Catholic) Republic was a vital part of the deal. It implicitly acknowledged that the two parts of the island might one day be reunited, although not now.

As the 1998 agreement plainly said, people born in Northern Ireland have the right to be ‘‘Irish or British or both as they may so choose.’’ And it worked, sort of: the only way you can tell you have crossed the border now is that the speed signs change from miles to kilometres or vice versa.

It was a brave, imaginative deal that has given Northern Ireland 20 years of peace, but it is now at risk. When the ‘‘Leave’’ side narrowly won the Brexit referendum in the UK and Theresa May replaced David Cameron as prime minister in 2016, she had a credibility problem. Like Cameron, she had supported ‘‘Remain’’, but the Conservative Party she now led was dominated by Brexiters.

So she became an enthusiastic Brexiter herself. The English nationalists who ran the Brexit campaign had said nothing about leaving the EU’s ‘‘single market’’ and customs union, but within weeks of taking office May declared that Britain must leave both of them.

She even made this demand part of her famous ‘‘red lines’’, the non-negotiable minimum that the British government would accept in the divorce settlement. Unfortunately, ending the customs union would mean re-creating a ‘‘hard’’ border between Northern Ireland and the Republic – and that might lead to a renewal of the sectarian civil war between Catholics and Protestants.

Theresa May’s position is pure fantasy: no customs border with the EU either on land or in the Irish Sea. Which is why the probability of a chaotic ‘no deal’ Brexit is growing daily, and the prospect of renewed war in the North is creeping closer. Is renewed war really possible? Last year Sinn Fein, the leading Catholic party in Northern Ireland, withdrew from the ‘power-sharing’ government mandated by the Good Friday agreement. That could be seen as clearing the decks for action once it became clear that Brexit would undermine all existing arrangements in Ireland.

And if the UK crashes out of the EU without a deal, the ratings agency Standard and Poor’s predicted, unemployment in the UK will almost double, house prices will fall by 10 per cent in two years, and the British pound will fall even further. First impoverishment for the British, then war for the Irish.

Gwynne Dyer’s new book is ‘Growing Pains: The Future of Democracy (and Work). 1. Their first names were Peter and David and they hosted a popular cooking show on New Zealand television. What were their surnames?

2. A person with the letters FRSNZ after his or her name is a fellow of what?

3. What model of Morris car did Lord Nuffield, owner of the Morris company, describe as looking like a poached egg?

4. Which is bigger – Antarctica or Australia?

5. What was the common theme of the films Million Dollar Baby, When We Were Kings and Cinderella Man?

6. Which word best describes a hirsute person: hairy, aloof or unpredictable?

7. What novel by Alan Duff, subsequently adapted for the screen, was a sequel to Once Were Warriors?

8. A fadge is a sack for carrying what: potatoes, hides or wool?

9. What high-profile New Zealand mayor was recently criticised by the Taxpayers’ Union for driving an ‘‘extravagant’’ mayoral car?

10. What three-word French phrase means ‘‘immediately’’ or ‘‘at once’’?

1. Hudson and Halls; 2. The Royal Society of New Zealand; 3. The Morris Minor; 4. Antarctica; 5. Boxing; 6. Hairy; 7. What Becomes of the Broken Hearted; 8. Wool;

9. Tim Shadbolt; 10. Tout de suite. Anyone wishing to make a complaint to the New Zealand Media Council should first put it in writing to the editor. If not satisfied with the reply, complainants should then write to The Secretary, New Zealand Media Council, Box 10 879, Wellington, including a clipping of the disputed article and copies of the correspondence. Letters are welcome, but writers must provide their name, address and telephone number as a sign of good faith – pseudonyms are not acceptable. So that as many letters as possible can be published, each letter should be no more than 250 words. We reserve the right to edit letters for length, sense, legal reasons and on grounds of good taste. Please send your letters to: The Editor, The Southland Times, PO Box 805, Invercargill; fax on (03) 214 9905; or email to letters@stl.co.nz I will listen to what God the Lord says; he promises peace to his people, his faithful servants – but let them not turn to folly.

Psalm 85:8