Decision 2018: Will he stay or will he go?
Does he stay or does he go? Whatever Steve Hansen decides today regarding his All Blacks future post-2019, you know he will do so with the team’s best interests at heart.
Yes, Hansen’s decision will weigh up his family’s best interests, and, if in the positive, it still only supposes that New Zealand Rugby will want him to stay on post-Japan. Some water needs to flow under that bridge just yet.
If the team is best served by him walking away after Japan, he’ll do that. If he senses he can help the transition to the next head coach, he’ll hang about and smooth that pathway.
Hansen has many quirks and one or two weaknesses to balance his multitude of strengths as a rugby coach and leader of men; but above all he is a proud head of the All Blacks organisation and understands both the privilege and responsibility he has with his current role.
It’s the primary reason he has such an incredible record with the All Blacks (even with this year’s stumbles, they have won 85 of their 96 tests since he took charge, and lost just eight) and has been a principal figure in back-to-back World Cup triumphs.
Hansen sets standards that only the very best players and people can aspire to, and as a result his teams are invariably better equipped to prevail in the white-hot environment of the test arena. He fights for what he believes in (ask the Super Rugby coaches) and he demands high levels of output from his players (ask Akira Ioane).
So, with all that in mind, which way does he go? That’s the question everyone wants answered ahead of today’s muchanticipated announcement.
Hansen is playing his cards close to his chest on this one – and rightfully so – but if you were a betting person, you could do worse than plop a lazy fiver on him declaring his interest in staying involved beyond next year’s World Cup.
For the reasons mentioned above, it might well be that Hansen will serve the All Blacks best by extending his involvement with them beyond the unprecedented 16 years he will have been part of the coaching team – eight as an assistant and soon to be eight as the shotcaller.
There is a strong possibility New Zealand Rugby already has a succession plan in place for the All Blacks head coach position. And that it involves the outstanding Joe Schmidt.
But, as we now know, Schmidt, the standout coach of Ireland, is not available to step right into another coaching job after next year’s World Cup.
But, presuming that Schmidt still has interest in the All Blacks role – he is a Kiwi and a rugby coach, so why wouldn’t he? – then maybe the succession plan just gets put on the back-burner for a year, or two.
That creates an awkward interim. There is no sense appointing someone with real head coaching mettle if you’re just going to yank the job from under them after a term or two.
In that case it would make sense for Hansen to stay on, and guide the next generation of All Blacks for the first season or two of the next cycle. Schmidt, if he’s the successor, could then be eased into the role under the watchful tutelage of the man with arguably the most All Blacks coaching intellectual property of all time. Departing All Black Ben Smith will leave New Zealand as a poster boy for extended periods away from the game and has revealed that more senior All Blacks are set for breaks ‘‘over the next few years’’.
Smith was given time off to recharge after the second Bledisloe in August 2017 and while he plays a straight bat to most questions the topic of rest immediately engages the Otago product.
‘‘It’s one of the best things I could have done at that point,’’ Smith said yesterday. ‘‘It gave me a chance to put a lot of energy back into the game.
‘‘As you’ll see over the next few years there will be chances where other players get an opportunity to take breaks so that they can be really fresh when they are playing rugby and put their best foot forward.’’
With overseas suitors lining up to sign top-line All Blacks after the World Cup the focus has been on where players such as Beauden Barrett will go to cash in on their status.
However, non-playing sabbaticals are still an option, and New Zealand Rugby Head of Professional Rugby Chris Lendrum told Stuff in September that players were keen on the idea.
‘‘We’ve seen more interest in the last few years in people taking a break from rugby altogether, whether that’s short or long term,’’ Lendrum said. ‘‘Ben Smith last year is a really good example of that, Richie McCaw prior to that.
‘‘I think the overwhelming feeling at the All Blacks level is that you step away from the All Blacks at your own risk.’’
While Smith was never in danger of losing his All Blacks jersey he made it clear his break was responsible for his strong form this year and made it clear
You’re tempted to nominate Ngani Laumape as the All Black who might shock the world.
Only the chances of him actually making New Zealand’s World Cup squad would have to be rated as minimal. There’s the rub. To be an ‘‘unexpected sensation’’ there has to be a surprise element about your selection.
Vaea Fifita is in a similar boat. Where Laumape potentially has just a faint hope of being among the midfield he wouldn’t join Sam Whitelock and Kieran Read on the sidelines for the start of Super Rugby.
‘‘I’ve had my break,’’ Smith said.
‘‘My body is feeling really good, mentally I’m feeling really good so I’m good to go and I’m looking forward to getting back into it for the Highlanders.’’
Next season will be Smith’s last for the Highlanders after confirming his move to French players in the All Blacks’ 31, Fifita can play his way into blindside flanker.
Again, though, it’s hard to mount a compelling case on behalf of a guy who might not even end up in Japan next year.
So let’s divert towards guys who are likely to go, but still have a bit to prove in the black jersey.
Given Joe Moody’s struggles to stay fit of late, you could argue Karl Tu’inukuafe might see time at loosehead prop and continue his rise from obscurity to stardom. But, having made such a big impression already, it would be hard to describe anything Tu’inukuafe might do in 2019 as unexpected. club Pau and Smith is a certainty to wear the No 15 jersey.
However, Smith gave his backing to Damian McKenzie’s efforts at fullback for the All Blacks, where Smith has been moved to the right wing.
‘‘Damo is a special player,’’ Smith said. ‘‘He ignites a lot of things we do as a team.
‘‘It’s been awesome to be working alongside him.
‘‘He’s a pretty exciting talent
‘‘Hansen is playing his cards close to his chest on this one.’’
How about hooker Dane Coles? At 32, and with 60 test caps to his name, Coles is very much a known quantity who, at various times, has been described as the best hooker in the world.
However, for parts of 2017 and 2018, it looked as if his career might be over. First it was concussion symptoms that wouldn’t come right, then a knee injury that required two operations and put further strain on Coles’ already troublesome calves.
Having headed towards the brink of retirement, Coles eventually found his way onto the All Blacks’ end-of-year tour and did enough to suggest he