Locking it in will be a numbers game
Each day this week, Stuff’s rugby writers will address a burning question ahead of what promises to be a hectic 2019. Today we ponder how many locks the All Blacks may take to the World Cup.
Three or four? That’s the question the All Blacks selectors must answer when they assess their options at lock for the World Cup in Japan in 2019.
Players such as Patrick Tuipulotu and Luke Romano will desperately be hoping that it is four.
The new Blues co-captain has been in and around the All Blacks for a while now but sits as their fourth choice lock, while Romano has been out of favour but was strong and physical during the Mitre 10 Cup.
But they face a hard task cracking the All Blacks’ 31-man squad for a number of reasons, some historical and some due to the nature of the RWC draw.
The All Blacks took only three locks to the 2015 World Cup – Sam Whitelock, Brodie Retallick and Romano.
They did so, in part, so they could carry six loose forwards – Kieran Read, Richie McCaw, Sam Cane, Victor Vito, Jerome Kaino and Liam Messam.
The rationale for that decision is, in effect, still relevant now.
The All Blacks have two dominant locks, Retallick and Whitelock, who are guaranteed to start all the ‘big’ tests, with Scott Barrett providing extremely good backup.
Beneath those three, there is a drop to the next best.
The challenge for the next tier of locks in 2019 is to say to selectors: ‘‘Hold on, I have been so good in Super Rugby I’m going to make you change your thinking.’’
The fact that a big, bruising side such as South Africa are in the All Blacks’ pool isn’t that relevant.
In fact, the more pertinent detail is when the All Blacks play South Africa.
The heavyweights meet in the opening round of pool B fixtures, on September 21.
That’s about one month before the quarterfinals, on October 19-20, meaning the All Blacks will have plenty of time to manage Retallick and Whitelock against their lesser pool B rivals before the knockout stage.
Also, if either Retallick or Whitelock get injured in that Springboks match, the All Blacks will have plenty of time to assess them and call in a permanent replacement if needed.
Neither is likely to start every pool game, which means Barrett will get some solid game time at lock, but the All Blacks will also need another locking option to take the load off the front-liners in the pool stages.
That’s where it gets interesting in the loose-forward selections, as one of the six likely to be selected will have to step in at lock at some stage.
Vaea Fifita could do it, as could Jackson Hemopo, or possibly Shannon Frizell – at a pinch even Liam Squire.
The above quartet have been identified at No 6s in the All Blacks setup, not locks, but that doesn’t mean the selectors will be blind to their versatility.
Could they step into lock for pool games against Canada or Namibia? Clearly they could, although they wouldn’t be options for games against the bigger sides.
That spells bad news for outand-out locks such as Romano and Tuipulotu.
The All Blacks locks for the Rugby World Cup will be Whitelock, Retallick and Barrett – and that may be all they bring.