Black Caps primed for another Cup run
When the New Year dawns on Tuesday, it will be exactly five months until the Black Caps stride onto Cardiff’s Sophia Gardens.
Their first-up opponents will be familiar – Sri Lanka – as will their ultimate goal: to be the first New Zealand men’s team to win a Cricket World Cup at their 12th attempt.
More than four years will have passed since the Black Caps eyed their golden opportunity. Buoyed by home comforts and a captivated nation, they stormed into their first final before smacking into a green-and-gold wall at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.
There remains that nagging feeling that New Zealand’s best chance to hoist the trophy passed them by, when they assemble in England in mid-May after Indian Premier League commitments.
So, how do we assess the chances of Kane Williamson’s team?
The semifinals will be the minimum goal and a realistic one given they’ve progressed that far at the last three cups, and seven times in all.
From a current world ODI ranking of three, this experienced lineup will expect to make the final four. The fact they missed the semis at the last two Champions Trophy tournaments in the UK in 2013 and 2015 is a slight worry.
The format returns to the 1992 template – another memorable tournament for New Zealand. It looks the fairest way to determine the final four, too, a full round robin for the 10 sides.
Hopes of a semifinals berth, and anything past that, depend heavily on Williamson and fellow batting kingpin Ross Taylor. If Williamson and Taylor – in his final World Cup – set a platform on high-scoring grounds, a well balanced bowling attack led by Trent Boult means they should be in the game. Fast bowler Lockie Ferguson looks a worthy addition and potential game-breaker.
They’ll believe they can beat any team but pressure on the biggest stage away from home remains the question mark. Most of the squad have recent experience in county cricket and knowledge of each ground.
An allrounder who can ice a run chase was lacking at the last Champions Trophy and will provide one selection dilemma for Gary Stead and Gavin Larsen when they pick their 15.
Colin de Grandhomme remains in the box seat for that role and it may be a toss-up between a second pace bowling allrounder or a fifth quick.
At full fitness, Corey Anderson strolls into the side but his involvement depends on how well and frequently he bowls in the coming months. Jimmy Neesham is pushing, too, but needs to break back into the one-day side.
Mitchell Santner can also fit the bill as a batting finisher. His spin partner looks a tight race between leggies Ish Sodhi and Todd Astle. Backup batsman/ wicketkeeper to Tom Latham looks increasingly like the veteran BJ Watling for his experience and batting versatility.
England at home are deserved favourites, just ahead of India, with the pair looking the most likely finalists at Lord’s on July 14.
Australia should have Steve Smith and David Warner back and can’t be underestimated with their quality pace attack. It could become the Black Caps’ crunch game, the 2015 final rematch at Lord’s on June 29.
South Africa are rated fourth favourites with Sportsbet at $7.50, with New Zealand priced at $9. Having bounced the Proteas out of the last two World Cups, Williamson’s men will fancy their chances at Edgbaston on June 19 though if they can rid their mental block at World Cups South Africa are good enough to be title threats.