NZ’s got talent but little room
National needs dance partners, and the nation needs more diversity. But have Kiwis had enough of minor parties? Rob Mitchell reports.
Sir Bob Jones has been there, done that. He has built a business empire and helped tear down its political equivalent. The 12.2 per cent of the vote his fledgling New Zealand Party won in the 1984 election wasn’t enough to get him into Parliament under first-past-thepost, but it did help defeat the National government and end the premiership of Robert Muldoon.
For those wishing to follow his path in creating a new party, he has some good news, and some typically brutal Bob Jones bad news.
The bad news is that he sees little opportunity for a new party to succeed next year.
But the good news will have Vernon Tava smiling. Jones sees one glimmer of hope to break the growing, iron-clad grip of the major parties: a burst of teal to complement the ubiquitous red and blue.
‘‘There’s no opportunity . . . other of course than a full-scale green party with no additional agendas clouding the imagery,’’ he says.
‘‘Green issues are now accepted across the political spectrum as major concerns, thus their political potential is huge to becoming a significant government coalition party.’’
That will be music to the ears of Tava, a former Green Party member and leadership aspirant who has created the Sustainable New Zealand Party in a bid to attract voters concerned about the planet, but also about the Greens’ Left-leaning tendency.
More accurately, he has set up a website seeking financial members, 500 being the marker for establishing an official party.
Tava’s idea might have the backing of at least one Bob, but he’ll need to do a great deal more to keep up with the Joneses of New Zealand politics.
Since the first MMP election, the only parties to succeed, other than National and Labour, have been those created or led by sitting MPs; parties headed by political newbies have thrashed in vain against the 5 per cent party vote threshold.
The Electoral Commission has recommended reducing that to 4 per cent; Justice Minister Andrew Little will seek the public’s recommendation in a referendum at next year’s election.
But there is another, more immediate, obstacle to overcome: a growing headwind.
‘‘What we’ve seen is the vote has become increasingly concentrated,’’ says Tava. ‘‘We’ve gone from 1996, the first MMP election, when about 65 per cent of the vote went to the two big parties; in 2017 it was over 80 per cent of the vote.
‘‘So we’re actually seeing a shrinking space for parties other than National and Labour.’’
We have also seen a return to a first-past-the-post mentality, says Massey University associate professor Grant Duncan. ‘‘2002 was the high point for the minor parties, but it’s going in the other direction, back to the two-party-dominated system.’’
That means a lot of smaller but still significant voices are being drowned out. As is diversity.
‘‘The nature of the system does make it difficult for a new party to get over that threshold. And in doing so, if you take the Conservative Party for example, a lot of that was voters who would otherwise have voted for National or possibly for NZ First.’’
But opportunities remain, says Duncan. He believes there are plenty of potential votes to unpick from both parties.
‘‘I’ve often thought that there is room for a right-of-National party, but the question is, what kind of right-of-National?
‘‘Is it going to be a libertarian party or is it going to be conservative in the sense of moral Christian conservatism? Or is it going to be far-Right populist, which is really going to get stuck into political correctness, kick the s... out of the Treaty, anti-immigration, that kind of thing.
‘‘There is a lot of sympathy for those kind of views in this country.’’
That will give heart to those behind the New Conservative Party, a political movement that has risen from the rubble of Colin Craig’s ill-fated efforts.
New leader Leighton Baker will be further emboldened by the most recent political poll: 1.1 per cent of people plumped for a Conservative party in the Newshub-Reid survey, a small number but bigger than ACT’s (0.4) and not far away from Government coalition partner NZ First (2.9). All were beaten by the 3.1 per cent margin for error.
Among the also-rans was the Ma¯ ori Party at 0.8 per cent. The far Left presents another opportunity, says Duncan.
‘‘When you think about it, there are a lot of people who are struggling,’’ he says.
‘‘It’s conceivable that you could have a populist far-Leftwing party that comes out hard and says the system is utterly rigged against poorer, hardworking families and beneficiaries and says we just have to do something about this rotten capitalist system.
‘‘And if it had a strong Ma¯ ori and Pasifika focus, it could potentially do well. But these are people who tend not to vote anyway, because they are so disillusioned with the system that they don’t even care about it any more.’’
And like those people, the party representing them would probably struggle for funding.
Money is one of three key pillars to getting a political party up and running, says Duncan, the others being a good leader and a credible, timely ideology.
The Conservative Party had two out of three; normally that ain’t bad. Not in politics.
It certainly had the money, courtesy of Craig’s fortune as a successful businessman; it had a catchment of potential voters frustrated at increasingly liberal legislation in the House; but it also had Craig as leader.
It was a similar story for The Opportunities Party (TOP) in 2017. It had leader Gareth Morgan’s money and a slew of policies that grabbed the interest and attention of many.
That attention grew when Morgan referred to Jacinda Ardern as ‘‘lipstick on a pig’’ and continued his campaign against cats.
‘‘He said, ‘Oh that’s just the way you’ve got to play the game’, but hang on Gareth, you said you were talking about being sensible and evidence-based, and not being that kind of thing,’’ says Duncan. ‘‘[He] let himself and the party down.’’
New TOP leader Geoff Simmons still senses an opportunity but, as the ad tells us, good things take time.
‘‘Going from a standing start is pretty difficult,’’ he says. ‘‘It takes time to set up all the structures; to get the volunteers, people understanding what their roles are and how to do all that stuff; that’s a massive logistical challenge that any new party faces.’’
Even the established ones. Even those with some parliamentary pedigree.
Damian Light knows that better than almost anyone else.
As a member of United-Future since 2002, he was involved in practically every aspect of party operation, including stints on the board and as party president. He was a candidate in four elections and, when Peter Dunne resigned in 2017, he stepped up as a short-lived party leader.
‘‘We shut up shop about a year ago, and a lot of people said we should keep going, but it’s really difficult,’’ Light says.
‘‘We were almost exclusively volunteers, but you’ve still got expenses – you’ve got websites, membership databases, taxes and all that exciting stuff . . . And that’s aside from the campaign, where you’ve got to pay for billboards, advertising . . .’’
Size matters in politics. And in prime time. ‘‘It’s quite hard in a small party to get above and break out,’’ Light says. ‘‘When you’re small you’ve got to prove yourself before people will give you that money, or vote and their time. And how do you do that when you don’t have the money or the attention?’’
Light has since turned his own attention to local body politics, campaigning for a seat around the council table in Auckland.
But he keeps an eye on what’s going on further south. ‘‘I’ve still got some unfinished business in parliamentary politics.’’
He would make an ideal dance partner for a party like National: he’s smart, experienced, and young. At 36, he represents a group of people politicians would love to corral: millennials.
But Duncan has just about given up on youth. ‘‘We’ve been through this in the last couple of elections – ‘We’ve got to get the youth out’ – and I’ve made some efforts in that regard myself, and in the end I’ve resigned myself that they’re not going to vote, until they’re ready.’’
In the 2014 election, 85 per cent of the eligible population voted. It was even higher among those aged over 65 (94 per cent), but almost a third of people between 18 and 24 didn’t bother.
That’s about 150,000 potential ticks lost. ‘‘You can pull out any bells and whistles that you like – free cannabis, let’s do something about climate change, free tertiary education, free this, free that, lolly scramble for the young – they’re not going to vote for you,’’ Duncan says.
That leaves any potential new players scrambling around at the edges, the extremes.
All agree it’s incredibly hard, but a battle worth undertaking.
‘‘If you think of what New Zealanders are about, and what our House of Representatives consists of, I don’t think it’s as representative as it could be, and there are some gaps,’’ says Duncan.
‘‘We are still very much stuck in a first-past-the-post system, with the two main parties,’’ says Simmons. ‘‘They try to look very different, but actually are incredibly similar because they are fighting over that average voter, the median voter.’’
More diversity ‘‘opens up the debate about what’s possible’’.
‘‘When you’re in a situation like we are, as a country and planet, right now, facing pretty big issues economically, socially and environmentally, just having more ideas is a great starting point.’’