Ardern shines as a leader in very dark times

Jacinda Ardern’s premiership has been shaped by huge shocks outside of her immediate control. At this time last year, the country was still reeling from the horrific terror attack in Christchurch, and found a lot of comfort in the clear determination Ardern seemed to find in the days and hours after the attack.

Now New Zealand again faces the prospect of a mass loss of life in hospitals and homes all over the country, as the confirmed number of coronavirus cases spike over 100.

None have died yet but Ardern was clear today that a huge death toll was a real possibility, with ‘‘tens of thousands’’ dead.

‘‘If community transmission takes off in New Zealand, the number of cases will double every five days. If that happens unchecked, our health system will be inundated, and tens of thousands New Zealanders will die,’’ Ardern said.

This might sound like scaremongering to some but it isn’t. It’s the exact framing needed. New Zealand simply does not have the hospital capacity to deal with mass transmission of coronavirus over a short time. In fact, we have almost three times fewer critical care beds per head of population than Italy does, where hundreds are now dying every day.

In response to this looming threat, Ardern has now made what will be the most significant decision of her career, moving New Zealand to alert level 3 and then level 4 in 48 hours.

This is the most any government has ever intervened in day-to-day life in peacetime. It will see schools and almost every business shut its doors.

It will see New Zealand essentially asked to shut their front door and lock it unless they need to go to the supermarket – for a whole month, not travelling to their neighbours, their friends and families, or to the next town over.

And these are not just suggestions. Police and possibly the Defence Force will be out on the streets enforcing these rules, empowered by the epidemic notice and state of emergency we are now in.

The scale of this change is so immense that things that would be considered unimaginable even a month ago are now seen as obvious and sensible steps.

Parliament – the body that gives Ardern and any government the actual legitimacy and tools to operate – is being shut down indefinitely, other than some kind of select committee to keep some scrutiny on the Government. The National Party appears to support this move and it doesn’t appear anyone else will really complain.

A barely-costed wage subsidy programme is being opened up much wider, with $9.1b projected to be spent in just the next three months keeping people in work. For context that’s about twice what the country usually spends on benefits over a whole year, and all spent in three months.

We are becoming a proto-socialist state and the National that called Working For Families ‘‘Communism by stealth’’ is in full support.

Huge deals with banks to keep mortgages and business loans from being defaulted on. Rent rises are being frozen as are no-cause terminations. The economy, already on life support, is about to take a gigantic pounding.

Some will attempt to minimise this and argue that Ardern was in fact late to move to level 4, or is just doing what any leader would do in following scientific advice.

Realistically, however, this is a hugely political move and one that will not have been taken lightly. Many Kiwis will resent this massive intrusion into their lives and the economy. Those calling for it to happen sooner didn’t have to organise public servants into actually carrying out what will be the most complicated and far-reaching government action since World War II. The grumbling about this intervention will probably remain as grumbling for now but there is no guarantee that these restrictions will lift after a month.

How good do you feel about a government when it’s stopped you from seeing your adult children for two or three months? Or a year?

And while many prime ministers might have eventually got to level 4 themselves, Ardern has again shone as a leader in very dark times. As a communicator, she has the ability to be very boring and even unclear when it suits her but none of that was on show at her press conference.

This is completely uncharted territory for a modern government, with powers being dusted off most people would never dream of using, and Ardern made it look natural. That’s not easy.

These are not just suggestions. Police and possibly the Defence Force will be out on the streets enforcing these rules, empowered by the epidemic notice and state of emergency we are now in.