Short, sharp summer season likely

New research on tourism spending shows where the border closure may hurt most this summer.

Tourism economist Shane Vuletich has found huge regional variations in the visitor spend per resident, and he said that had big implications for businesses that had relied on overseas customers.

The visitor spend (domestic and international) per North Island resident was $5140 for the year to July 2019, compared with $9002 per South Island resident.

Vuletich’s research company Fresh Info has been running the numbers for Tourism New Zealand in an attempt to see where the money might land this summer and what that may mean for regional economies.

For territorial authorities, Queenstown Lakes came out tops with $73,594 of visitor spend per resident, more than 10 times the $6614 for Christchurch, while Auckland City did not make the top 20.

On a regional basis Northland at $5890 per resident came out just ahead of Auckland, but

Vuletich said Northland was likely to be hit harder because it was more dependent on income from tourism.

‘‘Auckland has a really diverse economy, so if you lose a tourism job, you have other options. Whereas in Paihia or the Bay of Islands, if you lose your tourism job, there’s not much else to look at.’’

Vuletich said it was also clear tourism propped up a lot of businesses and attractions such as museums and galleries that local residents could also benefit from.

Back in 2016 it was estimated 59 per cent of Taupo food and beverage outlets would not exist without spending by domestic and international visitors, and in Rotorua 23 per cent of retail stores would not exist without income from those sources.

Vuletich believes those figures still stand, and if anything are probably a ‘‘bit light’’.

Vuletich said October and November, and February, March and April were traditionally months when tourism operators targeting overseas visitors made their ‘‘fat’’ for the remainder of the year.

Queenstown would probably come through OK, but he feared for more out-of-the-way areas such as Te Anau and the West Coast.

‘‘The further you are from Auckland and off the main drag, the tougher it will be.’’

As gateway centres, Auckland and Christchurch may face a slower summer as residents abandoned cities for the regions, and the usual ‘‘backfill’’ from foreign visitors was not available.

‘‘The message to tourism operators is manage your cash flow carefully because we don’t know, but we suspect, it’s going to be a short sharp summer season,’’ he said.