Southland’s market ‘on fire’
Forecast backs region’s recovery amid Covid-19 doom and gloom
A key figure in Invercargill’s central city revival says there is significant positivity in the Southland market and further retail tenant announcements are imminent.
Invercargill businessman Scott O’Donnell said much of the spotlight had recently centred on the economic plight of areas such as Queenstown and Fiordland in the south.
Southland MP Joseph Mooney said he counted 11 Te Anau retail shops that had shut down since the borders closed to international tourism, and a third of central Queenstown businesses expected to close within three months, according to a recent survey.
O’Donnell felt that what had been lost in that doom and gloom was how well Invercargill and other parts of Southland had held up through Covid-19. ‘‘The Southland market is actually on fire.’’
O’Donnell said Southland’s economy was largely built on ‘‘aluminium and grass’’ and both were in a good position. He pointed to the fact Fonterra had lifted its 2020/21 forecast farmgate milk price range to $7.30-$7.90 per kg as a significant boost to Southland’s economy.
While Te Anau and Fiordland had been hit hard, on the flip side another tourist destination, Stewart Island, had done very well, O’Donnell said.
Great South – Southland’s economic development agency – commissioned economic consultants Infometrics to build on a Covid-19 impact report prepared in mid-2020.
Great South chief executive Graham Budd said that while the initial economic outlook was pessimistic, the report showed that during last year’s level 3 lockdown, Southland was least impacted overall compared with the rest of New Zealand.
That was largely put down to key industries and the primary sector being able to continue to operate.
‘‘In that sense, what the report shows is heartening,’’ Budd said.
He acknowledged the outlook had not been as bright for areas such as Te Anau and Fiordland.
Infometrics suggested the worst case was Southland should be 70 per cent back to normal by 2025 and best case it would be 100 per cent back to normal economically.
‘‘At this stage, we are seeing quite a strong recovery based on export commodity prices and construction, so I would think the 70 per cent will be well surpassed,’’ Budd said.
The report also predicts Southland’s population will increase to between 108,800 and 111,300, up from the preCovid-19 population figure of 102,600.
‘‘Like the rest of New Zealand, we are finding that a lot of Kiwis who were overseas when Covid hit are returning home. That is great, but attracting skilled migrants into the region will also be essential.’’
O’Donnell is a director of Invercargill Central Ltd, which is the joint venture leading the major city block redevelopment. He is also an owner, director, and acting chief executive for HW Richardson Group. Farmers and Starbucks have been announced as tenants to date, but O’Donnell was pleased they were close to confirming others for the city block, which he said highlighted that positivity in the market.
Anchor tenant Farmers is set to open in May next year alongside 15 other stores in the block.