Labour on top, but Ardern tumbles in new poll
Labour is still miles ahead in the latest TVNZ-Colmar Brunton poll, commanding 49 per cent of party vote.
That’s down 4 points from the last poll, which was done between November 28 and December 2 last year.
National is up 2 points since that poll, but that’s only enough to see it register 27 per cent support.
The Green party is on 9 per cent, up 1 point, and ACT is steady on 8 per cent.
NZ First and Te Pa¯ ti Ma¯ ori are on two points each, while the
New Conservatives and TOP round out the numbers on 1 point each.
The headline numbers appear to show little change from the political situation at the election last year, however the personal polling of the leaders tell a different story. Jacinda Ardern’s support has preferred prime minister is at 43 per cent, falling 15 points since the last poll.
It’s her lowest preferred prime minister score since last February, before the Covid-19 response.
National leader Judith Collins is also down, falling four points to 8 per cent.
ACT leader David Seymour is on 4 per cent, the same level as the last poll. Chris Luxon is on 2 points, while Simon Bridges is at 1 per cent, up 1 point. None of that will vastly change the makeup of the current Parliament. Assuming Te Pa¯ti Ma¯ ori’s Rawiri Waititi wins his seat, Labour would still have a commanding majority with 62 seats, down from 65 today. National would win one extra seat, giving it 34. The Greens and ACT would both get 11 seats, up one seat each while Te Pa¯ ti Ma¯ ori would stay level on 2 seats. The poll also asked how New Zealanders were feeling about the economy - 42 per cent felt optimistic, down 8 points, while 29 per cent felt pessimistic, down 4 points, suggesting a greater level of uncertainty across the board.
For the first time in the 26 years, the TVNZ-Colmar Brunton poll was conducted without using any landline telephones.
1 News political editor Jessica Mutch McKay said they believed a more accurate poll was possible by ditching landlines.
‘‘This latest poll was done using 50 per cent randomly generated mobile phone numbers and 50 per cent online from New Zealanders who have signed up for market research studies. The polls will still talk to 1000 people,’’Mutch McKay said.