Sturgeon pins hope on new independence referendum
Nicola Sturgeon is preparing to hold a consultative referendum on Scottish independence next year in an attempt to bypass the British government.
Boris Johnson is intent on blocking another vote but sources say Sturgeon believes she can get around a possible legal challenge by putting the question to the Scottish people in a different way from the 2014 referendum.
Responsibility for constitutional matters was reserved to Westminster when Holyrood was set up in 1999. That means a court would probably strike out any attempt to simply rerun the previous vote, when Scots were asked ‘‘Should Scotland be an independent country?’’ and 55% per cent said no.
But a so-called advisory referendum, testing support for secession or asking voters if they believe the Scottish government should begin independence negotiations with London, could be allowed. Opponents will compare the idea with the failed Catalan referendum in 2017, which was conducted without Spanish government support and not recognised internationally. While turnout was nearly 85% for the Scottish referendum, only 43% took part in the Catalan vote after a boycott by those opposed to independence.
The Scottish Conservatives said they would boycott a new vote and urge voters to do the same. Sources said the UK government could legislate to prohibit the move, but that would carry the risk of boosting support for independence. Ciaran Martin, the government’s former constitution director who helped to negotiate the 2014 referendum, said the favoured option emerging at the top of the SNP ‘‘might’’ be more likely to go ahead. ‘‘The talk in Edinburgh circles is of a clever legal wheeze where ‘softer’ legislation is drafted.
‘‘Perhaps instead of a ‘referendum on independence’, the bill is instead about something like asking the people of Scotland for a mandate to open independence negotiations with the UK. Something like this might stand a better chance in court.’’
He added that the UK government could still change the law in Westminster, however, to make anything that cleared the courts illegal.