Guptill’s numbers just don’t add up
It should be the last shot that Martin Guptill plays in test cricket. New Zealand had a long, hard road ahead of them when their most experienced opener decided to put his foot down at a hairpin bend. Guptill went down on one knee, almost in prayer, and tried to smash one of the best spin bowlers in the world into a far pavilion. And so to bed.
Guptill is one of the most popular men in the team. He is smart and engaging and a terrific one-day batsman. But at test level Guptill is just not good enough. He is a poor player of spin and he is a caught behind waiting to happen against top-class seam bowlers.
Did I say top class? Mumbai’s 29-year-old journeyman Balwinder Singh Sandu said this after dismissing Guptill in the warm-up match: ‘‘The plan for Guptill was basic. Just try and hit the good length area and bowl a fourth-slip line. That was the plan and I think it was successful.’’
But then cricket is a basic game. The great Glenn McGrath made a career out of hitting a fourth stump line for over after over. The trouble with Guptill is that a seamer doesn’t need such prolonged periods of consistency. Sandu got him out in the fourth over. In the second innings the leftarm spinner dismissed Guptill without scoring.
Ahead of this series, selector Gavin Larsen said of Guptill’s inclusion in the team: ’’I don’t think the decision was tough. Guppy has experience in subcontinent conditions and we still believe if he plays his natural game and transfers that white ball style to tests he can be a very successful test match cricketer.’’
Selectors are prone to making absurd generalisations in the hope that no-one checks them out. Yes, Guppy does have experience in sub-continent conditions although he has never played test cricket in Bangladesh or Pakistan. His previous seven test-match scores against India on the sub-continent were 7 18, 6, 0, 2, 16, 53 and at an average of 14.6.
Outside the sub-continent, the most comparable conditions are to be found in Sri Lanka. Over there Guptill’s previous eight test match scores are 24, 18, 35, 28, 11, 13, 4, 11, at an average of 18. Guptill does have experience in sub-continent conditions and it is nearly all bad.
Larsen went on to justify Guptill’s selection ahead of Jeet Raval by saying: ’’Jeet hasn’t actually played any senior cricket on the sub-continent and that was a factor.’’
Well no, although Raval spent the first 16 years of his life in India, so he probably has a feel for the place. It is also difficult to get firstclass experience in a country if the selectors never pick you to tour there on the basis that you have no first-class experience of the place. Virat Kohli probably didn’t have much first-class experience of Australia until he was picked to play there. Now he scores runs for fun.
Raval is 28 years old with a first class record that is marginally better than Tom Latham’s and markedly superior to Guptill’s. He averaged 55.7 in last year’s Plunket Shield culminating in a run of form that included scores of 139, 90, 147 and 202 not out in his final five games.
Glenn Turner says: ’’He’s done OK, he’s shown some skill. He bowls a few leggies, he’s a good lad, a reliable sort of coot. He hasn’t shown the consistency, although he was very promising for a while. Perhaps he should have been upgraded earlier. If players stay at the same level for too long, their game can stagnate.’’
Guptill’s game is certainly stagnant at test match level. He has now played 45 test matches at an average of 29.1. As one reader wrote cruelly, ‘‘The selectors have stuck with Guptill like a piece of gum on the sole of their shoe. One could argue a stick of gum could have performed better.’’
If you remove Bangladesh and Zimbabwe from the equation, Guptill’s test match average plummets to 24.7. All his big runs have come against poor teams like the West Indies or the muchreduced Sri Lankan side that toured New Zealand last summer.
Guptill averages 24.0 against England, 22.9 against India, 16.9 against Australia and 14.4 against South Africa. In over 50 innings against those teams he has not managed a single test match century and scores a half century about one in ten attempts.
Turner says: ’’Team hierarchy takes over with selection. The seniority in the set-up tends to work for the incumbents. That is probably happening with Guptill. The players tend to look after their mates.’’
The former New Zealand opener thinks there is a softness about some in the team, Kane Williamson excluded, and they need to harden up. That needs to extend to the selectors. Guptill’s ‘‘natural game’’ at test match level is to get out.
We all remember the brilliant knock against West Indies in the quarterfinal of the World Cup and the 189 demolition of England when he smashed 65 off the final 25 balls. On a flat track Guptill is a magnificent striker of the cricket ball. It also happens that he was dropped in both those innings before he had reached 50.
Guptill is a first-rate one-day player just like Jason Roy, Alex Hales and Aaron Finch. But selectors need to realise that Virender Sehwag is the exception that proves the rule. The Indian was a magnificent attacking opening batsman at test level, but he was a freak.
Guptill just freaks out. It is his 30th birthday when the second test starts at Kolkata on Friday, on the sort of pitch where he has a chance of scoring a few more runs than normal. But the odds are stacked against Guptill. It is time for this young team to move on without him.