By-election will test Govt and Opposition

Just when New Zealand politics threatened to become stable and predictable, we get the thrill of a by-election. For politics nerds, Christmas has come early.

It was no surprise much of National’s old guard would start leaving when nine years in power turned into an unknown stretch in Opposition, where previously influential ministers struggle to be heard and even a new leader barely warrants a blip in the media. At its best, it would be mildly frustrating. At worst, utterly boring.

The departure from politics of former Prime Minister Bill English was followed swiftly by that of National’s campaign mastermind, Steven Joyce. But as list MPs, they prompted a smooth transition with MPs in waiting prepared to take their place. The public would hardly notice. Pundits assumed Gerry Brownlee or Nick Smith would be next. They reek of the past. Jonathan Coleman, on the other hand, is a relative newcomer as a veteran of the 2005 intake and was placed sixth in Bridges’ new line-up. There was no obvious sense his time was up.

On paper, Coleman’s suburban Auckland electorate, Northcote, is a safe National seat but Labour has taken the seat twice since it was created in 1996, both times during the Helen Clark years. Is there a chance that, with the right candidate and a strong campaign, a Labour Government with the same momentum and standing Clark had in 1999 and 2002 could at least make a sizeable dent in Coleman’s 6200-vote majority?

By-elections are usually seen as a test of governments. Northland in 2015 was the perfect example. A third-term National Government had everything to lose and it did.

But the Northcote by-election will be a test of both Government and Opposition.

The honeymoon gloss is only just coming off Jacinda Ardern and attempts by supporting parties to distinguish themselves show the coalition is settling into a trickier managerial phase. The Ardern factor may not move a voting public quite as forcefully as it would have done two or three months ago.

By contrast, Bridges is yet to make any impression as Opposition leader and Coleman’s departure will be seen by some as a vote of no-confidence in him.

Bridges has disappointed in Parliament and his chief rival, Judith Collins, continues to grab headlines and media space more effectively than he does.

At times she seems to be the de facto Opposition leader. Anything less than a significant triumph by a National candidate in Northcote will destabilise Bridges’ leadership.

Few in the health sector will miss Coleman, who earned a reputation as an underperforming minister who often struck those inside and outside the sector as arrogant and out of touch. When his own leadership ambitions were thwarted in 2016, the writing was on the wall.