So who is this Simon Bridges?
Who is Simon Bridges? It’s a question many New Zealanders genuinely don’t know the answer to.
While Bridges spent last week talking to a couple of hundred people in Hawke’s Bay, and business leaders in Auckland, his counterpart was having highpowered trade and security talks with French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and British Prime Minister Theresa May.
There’s nothing quite like photos of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern outside No 10 and on the steps of Elysee Palace to remind Bridges of his place in the world.
Opposition leader really is half the fun – no wonder it’s called the worst job in politics – and as Bridges heads to Hawaii on a prebooked holiday with his family he’ll be plotting how he finds some of that name recognition Ardern has long enjoyed and continues to build on.
We live in the age of personality politics, and Bridges and Ardern both have problems, just not the same ones. Based on the latest poll, Ardern’s personal brand is relatively intact, while her party dropped five percentage points.
Bridges, however, is sat in Opposition, with his party of 56 MPs in first place in the polls on 44 per cent, but voters aren’t too sure about him leading the country.
If Labour isn’t already having kittens, they will be when they realise National’s internal polling saw the Opposition hit 50 last week.
Ironically, the reason Bridges has so little name recognition is probably in part because of the role played by former colleague Steven Joyce – the same guy left little choice but to move on from politics when Bridges won the leadership.
Bridges followed Joyce’s steps into communications, transport and economic development ministerial roles but, because Joyce had so much influence and power as both John Key and Bill English’s right-hand man, Bridges was only ever a behind-the-scenes man.
Joyce, Key and English have all moved on, and Bridges has no plans to run a leadership model where one person wields as much power as Joyce did. He has a close group around him to bounce policy and strategy off, made up of his deputy Paula Bennett, close confidantes Todd McClay and Jami-Lee Ross, and frontbencher Mark Mitchell.
Then there’s a wider group for everything else, which includes Judith Collins, Amy Adams and Gerry Brownlee.
McClay is the closest to what you might call a Joyce, but without the power – yet. Joyce won elections, which meant he earned respect and the ability to control decision-making, but the new-look National Party is too early in the piece for anyone to pull that off at the moment.
That doesn’t mean there isn’t the odd rumbling and power-play going on, though.
Brownlee and Bennett have never had much time for each other, and it’s understood that’s got worse since the leadership change. Now they can barely be in the same meeting room.
The promotion of the likes of Ross, and Invercargill MP Sarah Dowie, from near oblivion to fairly senior positions in the party, as a result of their loyalty to Bridges, has ruffled the odd feather too.
The 1 News/ Colmar Brunton poll last week saw Labour fall to 43 per cent, and Greens and NZ First rise to 6 and 5 per cent, respectively.
On the surface the coalition Government will be happy, and in the most preferred prime minister poll, Ardern is on 37 per cent compared to Bridges’ 10. It’s Ardern’s party that has a problem.
Bridges, meanwhile, needs to get above 10 percentage points for preferred prime minister pretty quickly, but can feel quietly confident about the state of his party.
Most National MPs seem genuinely shocked with the result, given Ardern and her Government are only six months into the job.
There’s something very distinct going on here – a real divide between love for a leader and love for a party – and the trick is one of them working out how to nail both at the same time.
A separate question put to the 1007 Kiwis polled was: Do you think the prime minister has done a good or bad job in managing recent political events? Keep in mind this comes on the back of the mishandling of the Labour Party summer camp, Broadcasting Minister Clare Curran’s inappropriate meeting with an RNZ employee, and the Government’s transport plans, including fuel taxes.
The results showed 35 per cent thought Ardern was doing a good job, 50 per cent said it was OK, and 11 per cent said it was bad. That’s 85 per cent of those polled who think she’s handling problems well, which means a chunk of National voters are happy with her political management.
Bridges isn’t blind to the fact he has work to do, and no doubt the strategy will involve lots of town hall-style community meetings, with a particular focus on the regions.
Think Winston Peters’ bus tour of the country in 2017, but with more resources.
Picking away at Labour has been pretty easy for the new leader so far – not least because its policy announcements hitting the regions in recent weeks have fallen into portfolios Bridges used to be the minister of, transport and energy.
Sitting back and letting the likes of Curran get more and more uncomfortable was easy for National. Bridges didn’t need to call for her resignation, he barely needed to lift a finger.
But there ares two components to a good leader: smarts and relatability.
Bridges has held some hefty portfolios across a range of areas and has sound economic nous. The part he needs to work on is connecting with voters, making himself appear approachable and genuine and, most importantly, likeable.
Ardern has all that stuff in spades, and it’s going to take more than a couple of appearances in Woman’s Weekly for Bridges to get anywhere near her level.
But don’t underestimate Bridges. He’s on the verge of launching a significant regional offensive, and Labour and NZ First shouldn’t scoff at the potential damage that could do – not only to their party votes, but their respective leaders, if he plays his cards right.