Kiwis feel the heat of SA
Sto the Jaguares in Rotorua, are on a tough tour against the Stormers and Sharks, the latter match to see them without their All Blacks because of a national camp. Up to this point, across the 22 previous years of Super Rugby, New Zealand’s overall winning rate against teams from South Africa and Argentina (the 2017 matches against the Sunwolves – who have now moved to the Aussie conference – have been disregarded), sits at 61.63 per cent.
So the 2018 numbers aren’t too different to the historic picture, but when they are compared to the last three seasons, and last year in particular, quite a difference is noticed.
In 2017 the 83.33 per cent Kiwi win rate (15 wins, three losses) was second-only to the 1998 effort of 85.70 per cent (18W, 3L), though was top of the charts in terms of points differential, with New Zealand sides coming up trumps by an average winning margin of 17 (39-22).
Both 2016 and 2015 were also decent returns, at 70 per cent or better, and an average margin of 11 in each season.
Only once have the Kiwis had a losing record against these rivals in a season – the 38.50 per cent in 2010, when the Bulls claimed the title.
Clear reasons for the New Zealand dominance in recent times has included the presence of the struggling Kings and Cheetahs, who have now been booted from the competition, while Argentina’s Jaguares were swept aside when they last faced Kiwi opposition, in 2016, still fresh meat in their debut year.
This year, however, the Jaguares have stepped it up to secure road wins over the Blues and Chiefs in the past fortnight. That, combined, with some fight from the South Africans, has shown up a few frailties, and this year’s overall closeness is represented by a Kiwi winning score of just 29-26.
Apart from the Crusaders – a traditionally strong touring team that their far superior overall winning rate against South African and Argentinian sides compared to that of the other Kiwi teams, would attest to – each of the New Zealand franchises have been knocked over this season, while there have been other games that they should have lost as well.
The struggling Blues somehow beat the conference-leading Lions in Johannesburg back in round four with a last-gasp try but have been beaten in their other three games; the Chiefs’ win over the Bulls in Hamilton saw the visitors initially up 28-14, with the hosts then fortunate to escape a yellow card for repeated infringements; the Hurricanes went down to the Bulls in Pretoria in round one, then produced a miracle comeback to beat the Sharks 38-37 in Napier last month; and there was another one-pointer when the touring Highlanders kicked a penalty after the hooter to knock over the Bulls a couple of weeks back.
With how brutal and important the local New Zealand derbies have become, it may be a case that the Kiwi teams have inadvertently slackened somewhat in performance against these overseas opponents.
But it seems it may be less about the Kiwis and more about the others, with the South African sides showing more willingness for expansive play – particularly the Bulls under new coach John Mitchell, which gives a nice balance to their traditional strengths of their big men and goalkicking.
The Lions lead the competition’s tryscoring count and they are joined by the Sharks and Stormers in the top four for clean breaks, and by the Stormers and Jaguares in the top four for defenders beaten.
The drop in domination this year may not be music to the ears of Kiwi teams and their fans, but the tune being played does indeed bring in a much-needed breath of fresh air for the competition.