Beware Chile for a tsunami

A quake on the Alpine Fault is unlikely to cause a tsunami threat to Timaru but the town is not off the hook for quakes at sea.

Alpine Fault Magnitude 8 (AF8) chief scientist Dr Caroline Orchison, and team leader for the Canterbury Ministry of Civil Defence and Emergency Management, James Thompson, have warned the South Canterbury District Health Board that faults off Timaru could generate tsunami with little warning.

AF8 is a three-year programme of scientific modelling, response planning and community engagement designed to address the knowledge gap.

Orchison said there were tsunami threats to South Canterbury.

‘‘We know that a South American earthquake caused a tsunami in New Zealand in 1960 and they take 12 hours to get here,’’ Orchison said

She warned that some faults off the coast of Timaru could generate a tsunami ‘‘with very little warning time’’.

‘‘There are several known and potentially unknown sources for near source tsunami, for example the Kaiko¯ ura earthquake caused a near source tsunami which meant that all of the east coast of New Zealand received a tsunami warning.’’

Orchison said knowledge of how far away some of the other sources are, and how often they generate tsunami was not well understood.

‘‘The biggest tsunami threat to Timaru will most likely be from Chile, which is 13 or 14 hours away,’’ Thompson said.

‘‘If the ground started shaking here most people would know to find higher ground and go inland. The message of ‘long, strong get gone’ rings true.’’

A nationwide exercise called the Tier 4 about the Alpine Fault scenario will be launched in 2020.

The whole of government as well as all the South Island regions and all the partner agencies including the Ministry of Health, Red Cross and police will be involved.

The exercise will mainly be a command and control exercise but some areas may do some theory as well, Thompson said.

‘‘The story about the fault is really engaging and very powerful because it is potentially such a big event,’’ Orchison said. ‘‘We encourage every one to get involved. It is a great opportunity to look at your own processes and preparedness.’’