Critical need for accurate forecasts, climate experts say
The fighting of the Nelson fires is an example of critical weather forecasting in action, climate experts say.
An international climate change partnership, the global Unified Model, was renewed at Te Papa by international experts for continued research to cope with a changing climate.
Fire and Emergency New Zealand rural fire manager Tim Mitchell, who had been fighting the Nelson fires for 30 days before travelling to the conference yesterday, said forecast data research was critical.
‘‘The work you’re doing is incredibly valuable, please keep it going. We can’t rest, the environment around us is changing, and if we rest it will get ahead of us,’’ Mitchell said. ‘‘Forecast data is critical for informing where we put our resources.’’
The risks were not reducing, they were increasing, he said.
‘‘The environment we’re working in is constantly changing and it’s getting more and more complex.’’
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) chief scientist climate Dr Sam Dean said the fire weather system used by Fire and Emergency New Zealand consisted of a number of tools used to combat fires. Additionally, Niwa was working towards coupling a risk modelling system with a forecasting system, he said.
‘‘Our ultimate ambition is not just to forecast weather and impacts but to forecast risk.
‘‘How many lives are you going to lose in this, how many properties might be damaged in this flood, how many people you might expect to be hospitalised.’’
The ability to predict the future was one of the greatest expressions of science, he said.
‘‘It allows you to dispel myth and superstition, and lets people make choices.’’
Jon Petch, of the United Kingdom’s Met Office, said prediction and projection tools were essential to understand future challenges.
‘‘The access to the best weather and climate services we can give are profound.’’
The heart of the climate change partnership wasn’t the modelling system but the people that were using it, and the collaborative science to develop it.
He was asked recently if weather forecasts were ‘‘getting better’’, Petch said.
‘‘I think there’s just increasing expectation on the ability of us to give the right advice. People want to know if it’s going to rain at 2 o’clock or 3 o’clock.’’
More seriously, scientists needed to know more about how regions would be affected by changing climates, he said.
‘‘We need more calculations and more data . . . people want more accuracy.’’
The global Unified Model is one of the world’s foremost weather and climate forecasting collaborations and has existed for five years.
Members include the UK, Australia, India, Korea, Singapore, South Africa, Poland, the Philippines and the US Airforce. Niwa is New Zealand’s contributor.