Sorry Japan, but it’s defence that wins Cups
We have now reached the knockout phase of the 2019 Rugby World Cup and some mouth-watering quarterfinal fixtures lie in wait. In the past, the World Cup quarterfinals have been formalities, with one team proving so dominant over the other team but this time could be different.
Japan have proved the revelation of the tournament, which often happens when teams play at home and forge belief. There is just something in home ground advantage which is invaluable. Jamie Joseph’s men have also played a very good brand of rugby. Everybody is talking up Japan’s attacking shape, the quality of their skillset as well as their offloading and finishing ability. Japan have the best attack but unfortunately good attacks don’t win World Cups – effective defences and setpieces do.
Despite finishing as Pool B winners, the All Blacks have a tough quarterfinal draw in the form of Ireland. Ireland have beaten New Zealand twice under Joe Schmidt, so there is a belief because this group of Irish players know what success feels like against the men in black. They will believe they can repeat the feat and make history by qualifying for their first World Cup semifinal in nine attempts.
It must be said that the Irish way of beating New Zealand is very different to the other teams’ ways. Most of the other teams who have done well or beaten New Zealand in the past have played a territory-driven game and didn’t allow the All Blacks to live off their mistakes.
Ireland’s way is different because they have a keep-the-ball mentality. It’s the theory because the All Blacks are so good off turnovers and, as a consequence, the Irish actually limit their amount of ball-in-hand play, opt for territory and don’t give the All Blacks anything to capitalise on. In their team meetings ahead of the second quarterfinal, Ireland will say: ‘‘If we keep the ball then the All Blacks can’t score a try.’’
The Irish have got a very onedimensional attack but they can keep the ball. They play off No 9 a lot and while they will play off No10 at times and change direction, the reality is that Ireland’s is probably the most basic attack at the World Cup – even more so than South Africa’s.
However, in their favour Ireland have a good set-piece, they can keep the ball and are in possession of a brilliant kicking game. Conor Murray, Jonny Sexton and Rob Kearney have skillsets suited to knockout rugby.
Ireland will be hoping that if they can starve the All Blacks of the ball, get one or two bounces to go their way or win some aerial contests, they could actually beat the All Blacks. Ireland’s current weakness is that they have only recently started with a rush defence and Andy Farrell starting to rush so late is not the solution.
Ireland’s defence is actually very good under Farrell but they have looked vulnerable with this new rush defence. It will be a good game where both teams will have opportunities but still I think an All Blacks victory is on the cards. Steve Hansen’s charges should be smart and skilled enough to hold out against Ireland and book their place in the last four.
Nigel Owens, who will oversee the 32nd test between Ireland and New Zealand, is just a very good referee. His ability to change his mind when he realises he is wrong is unique to referees. He manages his ego superbly. He speaks to the players with respect and expects the same from them.
In terms of the South AfricaJapan quarterfinal, you can’t imagine the hosts having the firepower. When you look at this Japanese team, they just don’t have the forward ammunition to beat the Boks. South Africa would rather play against the Japanese than an out-of-sorts Ireland.
Rassie Erasmus now knows how to beat Japan, having done so 41-7 in the World Cup warmup match. South Africa dominated the mauls, scrums and aerial contests.
Japan will look at that match and say they created enough space on attack. On the day, they just didn’t take their chances and they will note: ‘‘If there is one team whose defence we can break down it’s South Africa’s.’’
They would assess South Africa’s defence and almost look forward to playing against them. They would think: ‘‘Fine, this is a decent defensive system from South Africa, which put the All Blacks under pressure, but maybe we can break it down.’’ ExAll Blacks first-five Tony Brown, who serves as Japan’s attack coach, has been amazing. He would be sizing up the scene and almost licking his lips.
Japan won’t get forward dominance or gain aerial parity, but wow can they attack. From a South African point of view, they are not going to beat Japan by playing from deep. It’s neither Rassie’s nor the Springboks’ way. Rassie is literally playing to South Africa’s strengths and he must keep doing it.
South African Brendan Venter is a 1995 Rugby World Cup winner and a former assistant coach of the Springboks.