Ireland adopt ‘relentless’ gameplan

If you had to sum Ireland’s game in one word, it would be ‘attrition’. Data journalist Andy Fyers explains.

ANALYSIS: There is a sense that Ireland have peaked.

They stormed through 2018 winning the Six Nations, a Grand Slam and knocking off the All Blacks. But at the World Cup, they’ve been beaten by Japan and unimpressive in victory over lowly Russia.

Yet this is a team All Blacks fans will be nervous about facing. Perhaps Joe Schmidt’s side has precisely the right plan and personnel to win this quarterfinal.

Owning the All Blacks

When Ireland beat the All Blacks in Dublin last November, they dictated terms.

Ireland just shaded the territory and possession in their 16-9 victory, but what the two teams did with the ball when they had it was remarkably similar.

Ireland won 129 rucks to the All Blacks’ 125; they passed 208 times, the All Blacks 212; ran 164 times to the All Blacks’ 159 and kicked 30 times to the All Blacks’ 23.

Both teams broke 24 tackles, Ireland made one more line break, the All Blacks had two more offloads.

Perhaps tellingly, there were two areas where Ireland were clearly superior: turnovers won and penalties conceded. The All Blacks gave up possession 17 times to Ireland’s 11 and conceded 11 penalties (three of which resulted in three points for Ireland from directly in front of the posts) to Ireland’s five – the All Blacks kicked two penalties.

Ireland’s try, the sole touchdown of the game, came from a brilliant lineout move, which saw them reverse the direction of play for winger Jacob Stockdale who chip-kicked and regathered to score.

That piece of pre-planned and perfectly executed skill was the difference between the teams on the scoreboard.

What’s interesting about the statistics from that game is that they look typical for Ireland under Schmidt since 2015, but for the All Blacks less so. Ireland played their game and the All Blacks played it too, instead of their own.

So what exactly is Ireland’s game?

First and foremost they like to keep ball in hand and don’t take a lot of risks with it. Out of possession, they are just as relentless.

Here are some numbers since the end of the 2015 World Cup which illustrate the Ireland game plan.

In matches since the 2015 World Cup, Ireland threw 188 passes per game, the most of any team in rugby’s traditional ‘big eight’ (the ‘home nations’ plus New Zealand, Australia and South Africa) – 16 more per game than the All Blacks.

Despite all the possession, Ireland threw fewer offloads than any of those teams and their tackle busts and line breaks do not stand out.

If you had to sum all that up in one word, it would be attrition.

If you had to come up with another, it might be discipline. Only Scotland gave up fewer turnovers per game since 2015 than Ireland, but with far less of the ball of course. On defence, Ireland missed 16 tackles per game, the fewest of any of those teams which translates to the best tackle success rate – 89 per cent.

World Cup form

Which brings us to this World Cup. Ireland had a tricky pool, with games against Scotland, Japan, a less tricky one against Samoa as well as a sure thing against Russia. It meant Ireland could probably not afford to keep too much back during pool play.

What do their stats from these games show us?

Ireland have not deviated from their keep-the-ball-in-hand philosophy. Of the eight quarterfinal teams, only Australia, who are also extreme proponents of the possession-first game plan, have averaged more rucks per game.

Despite all that ball, Ireland have been the least efficient at creating tackle busts and line breaks on a per ruck basis. They’ve needed about six rucks for every tackle bust and about 12 for every line break.

This isn’t a weakness of Ireland’s game so much as a symptom of their tactics: keep the ball and hammer away relentlessly.

This kind of tactic is only possible if you are very good at protecting the ball. Ireland are the best.

They’ve given up fewer turnovers – on a per ruck basis – than any other quarterfinalist.

Despite this ability to maintain possession, Ireland are reluctant to take the chance of a turnover inside their own 20m zone. So far in this World Cup, they have kicked from this part of the field more often than they have taken the tackle. This is fairly standard. Only Australia have opted to take contact more often than they have kicked amongst quarterfinalists.

Ireland’s exit play from within the 20m tends to be a box kick by halfback Connor Murray. This allows their wings, who are good in the air, to contest the ball. If they fail to win possession, Ireland’s green wall kicks into action. There has been a clear concentration of rucks about 40m from Ireland’s try line, where Ireland set out their defensive stall after those clearing kicks.

An analysis of the tries Ireland have scored in the tournament reveals that their preferred – or perhaps simply, more dangerous – side to attack is down their right. Only three of the 17 tries they have scored have been to the left of the posts.

Ten of those 17 tries originated from a set piece (six lineouts, four scrums), the majority of the remaining from turnovers won. The average number of phases in a sequence leading up to a try is just 2.5.

This indicates that it is not the phases of continuous possession that lead to tries, it’s when this continuity yields a penalty and the chance of a set piece – such as a lineout – that Ireland look to strike.

It’s one thing to know what Ireland are going to do and quite another to stop it.

The All Blacks are in for a torrid encounter, even more so if the forecast rain arrives.

Ireland may have gone off the boil slightly in 2019, but their rise to world No 1 and two wins over the All Blacks were no fluke. They have a very effective style of play and have spent the better part of the past four years perfecting it.