Springboks could be big winners
The first Rugby World Cup semifinal, between New Zealand and England, is going to be a humdinger. The teams ranked first and second on the World Rugby rankings were devastating in the way they went about beating Ireland and Australia, respectively.
The All Blacks are in a good space and are the best balanced side because they are the one team that is different to England, South Africa and Wales. The All Blacks are actually getting the blend right the best at the moment. They kick when they need to kick and run when they need to run. They are brilliant to watch and you just have to take your hat off to them.
In England, New Zealand will face a more formidable foe than Ireland. England completely demolished Australia who are actually a good rugby side. England will keep playing the way they have been and are tough to beat.
They boast a brilliant setpiece, a great defence and some serious game-breakers. I don’t think the game will follow an attack-minded approach. I believe it will be the same tactical battle as semifinal two.
I feel that whoever comes through the Wales-South Africa contest will have an advantage in the final because, like two heavyweight boxers, England and New Zealand will go toe-to-toe for 80-plus minutes and will aim to knock each other out.
The final might be a bridge too far and the winner of the first semifinal may well be punch drunk by the time they reach November 2. The winner of South Africa-Wales could actually have a better chance of glory than everyone thinks.
The second semifinal will prove a brilliant tactical battle and I can’t see this being more than a five-point game either way. It’s a big week for the Springbok team because Wales will be their first real challenge outside of the first game against the All Blacks.
South Africa have been a little bit lucky in terms of their draw as, aside from the All Blacks, they have played very average teams in this World Cup. Wales will offer something totally different to Japan but South Africa are in a good place.
Unlike Japan, Wales will not overplay. Wales will play for territory and will prove tough opponents. Whether they have enough firepower, I’m not sure but with Shaun Edwards as their defence coach, they won’t feed the beast like the Japanese did because at the moment the Springboks live off defence. Edwards has been doing rush defence for ages, with London Wasps and Wales, and he knows exactly what gives the rush energy and what takes it away.
Meanwhile, French referee Jerome Garces, under whom the Springboks have a meagre 35 per cent winning ratio, is the ultimate curveball in this equation and coach Rassie Erasmus will be having nightmares thinking about how to deal with Garces.
The Boks have been refereed 14 times by Garces and have only won four fixtures.
Having not beaten Wales in their last four test matches, it’s a psychological disadvantage for the men in green and gold but the difference is that South Africa are playing well and Wales aren’t.
However, it’s Wales’ coaching staff which is the danger to South Africa because they will come up with a good plan and will look to exploit South Africa’s weaknesses.