Don’t bet against Hansen’s latest gamble

Why would you doubt Steve Hansen now? Why would you contemplate anything but Scott Barrett running out at No 6 tonight and playing exactly the role he has been tasked with to power the All Blacks into a third straight Rugby World Cup final?

Hansen is on a roll when it comes to big calls with these All Blacks and there is no reason whatsoever to think that he won’t get this one on the money either. Not that we won’t be just a little nervous about it in the meantime.

Picking Barrett to start ahead of Sam Cane in a beefed-up loose trio against England in the semifinal in Yokohama surprised many. But it shouldn’t have.

It’s what Hansen does. He has developed a sense for what’s right over a long career at the pointy end of this game and he is confident enough in his abilities to act on it. He is at heart a gambling man so it is hard to question those instincts when he has the record he does.

Sometimes he has an air shot. But not often. On the vast majority of occasions he gets it right and we’re soon enough nodding in approval, thinking ‘‘he’s done it again’’.

On the surface flipping the inform defensive dynamo Cane to the bench and starting the taller, bulkier, more direct Barrett to No 6 carries some risk factor.

Barrett is not the presence over the ball that Cane is, nor is he the adept tackler that Cane has proven himself to be at this World Cup. In fact it wasn’t so long ago that he was being marched from the field for a major defensive judgment error in Perth.

It is not as though Ardie Savea has been struggling at No 6 either in the twin tearaways role that had ticked all the boxes hitherto.

Also England’s loose trio is not exactly massive.

Billy Vunipola is a powerhouse at No 8 but Eddie Jones runs with the twin openside concept himself in the form of the outstanding Sam Underhill and fast-emerging Tom Curry.

They’re good but not physically overwhelming.

But in the game of chess that is coaching and selecting at the top level of international rugby,

Hansen has made his gambit. He’s changed up the paradigm. He’s upsized at a time when downsizing has been de rigueur.

He will have his reasons. Maybe it’s the lineout. Maybe it’s the physicality factor. Maybe it’s the ball-carrying. Maybe it’s a result of the second half at Twickenham last November when he spotted something en route to the most propitious of 16-15 victories.

Maybe it’s Matt Todd’s absence through injury. Maybe it’s the rain that came tumbling down in Tokyo yesterday (though the forecast is for it to clear today).

He wasn’t giving too much away after unveiling his lineup in Tokyo.

‘‘I’m not going into too much depth about that . . . it’s strategic; it’s not on form,’’ he said of the Barrett selection. ‘‘We’ve made some decisions about what we want to do and how we want to play and we’ve made that change because of that. He’s a lineout forward, a ball-carrier, so adds to our ball-carrying ability.’’

The second half at Twickenham last November? ‘‘It had a wee bit to do with it,’’ he added.

Let’s look at Hansen’s big calls this year.

He has shifted Beauden Barrett to fullback and brought in Richie Mo’unga at No 10 in a dual playmaker role. Big tick.

He picked Savea to fill the void at No 6 left by the departure of Liam Squire. Big tick (though he’s back at 7 this week.)

After the Perth debacle he ushered in rookies Sevu Reece and George Bridge as his starting wings ahead of a couple of fairly established performers in Rieko Ioane and Ben Smith. Big tick.

If there’s a hallmark of this wildly successful rein of Hansen’s it is that he is not afraid to be bold in his selections and that his aim is good.

This is a World Cup semifinal against a team many think might be the toughest hurdle in the All Blacks quest for this historic title ‘‘three-peat.’’

Now is not the time to go into your shell.

‘‘[Steve] Hansen does

. . . developed a sense for what’s right over a long career.’’