‘Volcano tourism’ up for debate
‘An unforgettable guided tour of New Zealand’s most active volcano,’’ is unlikely to be sold to cruise passengers of Royal Carribean again.
That is how the company recently advertised the roughly $500 shore excursion from its ship in the port of Tauranga.
The option now appears to be scrubbed from the company website.
An eruption on White Island on Monday has tragically left 14 people confirmed dead or presumed so.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Tourism Minister Kelvin Davis have declined to comment on the ‘‘bigger questions’’ that will need to be answered about the circumstances of tours on the island, which is the summit of an active and largely submerged volcano.
A Coroner’s investigation, to better examine the circumstances of the deaths, will run alongside a health and safety Worksafe investigation.
But beyond the immediate sorrow and management of this disaster, New Zealand will need to grapple with volcano tourism and the degree to which it is worth the risk. In this, we are not alone.
First published in 2017, a database of worldwide volcanic fatalities by researchers at the University of Bristol, tallies tourist deaths at 506 since the database’s start date of 1500. It is widely considered the most comprehensive record on the subject, and it should be noted that residents local to volcanoes are, overwhelmingly, the group most vulnerable to threat.
Author and senior research associate at the university Dr Sarah Brown confirmed that the past decade had seen the highest number of tourist deaths.
Some 100 since 2010, including those assumed in the White Island eruption.
The largest number of the decade’s fatalities (60) happened in Mt Ontake’s steam-driven eruption in Japan in 2014.
There are many possible reasons fatalities skew to contemporary times.
Communication and record keeping is much better and, as Brown noted, ‘‘the increased number of deaths may reflect greater numbers of visitors generally, meaning that if something happens, more people are caught up in it’’.
But the number also likely points to a growing fascination with the up-close experience of active volcanoes. There is anecdotal evidence to suggest that the eruption of the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajokull in 2010, with its global news coverage, helped to fuel a wider kind of volcano tourism.
Last year, the Royal Geographic Society even put out a report warning of the growing risks of volcano tourism, obviously to the tourists themselves but also to stretched rescue and emergency personnel.
Among the most visited volcanoes are Kilauea in Hawaii, Mt Fuji in Japan, and Mt Etna and Mt Vesuvius in Italy. They are increasingly joined by a host of lesser known sites including the likes of Mt Arenal in Costa Rica, Indonesia’s Mt Merapi and Mt Mayon in the Philippines.
Fatalities in Japan in 2014 appeared to do nothing to dent visitor numbers to the country.
In 2014, the number of international visitors rose by 23 per cent, and that figure climbed again by 32 per cent and 22 per cent in the subsequent two years. Visitor numbers to Mt Ontake and the vicinity, however, were significantly lower. New Zealand, where tourism is among the largest industrial sectors, will watch international visitor numbers closely for any reaction.
New figures from Stats NZ show that, overall, tourism was worth $40.9 billion in the year to March 2019. That is an all-time high, though the pace of growth has slowed recently.
Pockets of business within that huge sector may now be susceptible to falling demand.
Those associated with cruise ship travel may be affected, and certainly those linked to volcanic excursions like White Island (where tours are now suspended).
Tourism in and around places of high volcanic activity, like Rotorua, could also change.
Of the 100 volcanic fatalities for tourists recorded in the past decade in Brown’s database, two were in Rotorua. One resulted from a fall into a hot pool and the other was the result of gas inhalation.
There are also other sites that concentrate tourists in areas of volcanic activity. The very popular tramp Tongariro Alpine Crossing, across National Park land, takes more than 100,000 walkers a year through a complex of active volcanic vents, as well as cones and craters.
One finding of Brown’s work is that 90 per cent of tourists who died through eruptive activity were within 5 kilometres of the crater or summit. And ‘‘many’’ have been ‘‘very close’’ to the vent. At such distances, she said, ‘‘little can be done and even small eruptions can be lethal’’.
Exclusion zones are one response to such data. More shelters, safety briefings, and time limits in high danger zones are others. Weighed against the strength of human curiosity and the other-worldly wonder of volcanoes, New Zealand will grapple with all of these in the coming months.