The Timaru Herald

Similar to NZ

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similar to when New Zealand shut down.

Its lockdown was less strict, however, allowing many businesses to stay open.

In all cases, New Zealand acted slightly more quickly in the context of its own curve, but did so with the benefit of at least a week in real time.

WITH NEW ZEALAND

A small number of countries moved similarly quickly to put lockdowns in place.

One example is Estonia, in Eastern Europe.

Its population is similar to New Zealand’s, as is its daily rate of Covid-19 testing. Estonia declared a state of emergency on March 13, at which point it had 79 confirmed cases: a few days ahead of New Zealand, relatively speaking.

Its lockdown was not quite as strict, however, and allowed some shops to remain open; it has since expanded its restrictio­ns.

Its curve initially showed signs of flattening, but has since returned to its previous rate of growth.

For a country that moved at roughly the same time as New Zealand, with measures similar in scope, we can look at Argentina.

Its lockdown began on March 21, at which point it had 158 confirmed cases; the equivalent of about one day ahead of New Zealand’s lockdown.The terms of its lockdown are largely the same as New Zealand’s, with non-essential workers permitted to leave home only to buy food or medicine.

Its population, of course, is much bigger; about nine-times larger.

For one last example, we can look at the Czech Republic, which has a population double New Zealand’s.

It started shutting most businesses on March 12, at which point it had 94 cases, before enacting a full lockdown on March 15, when it had 253 confirmed cases.

AHEAD OF NEW ZEALAND

That leaves the countries that moved more aggressive­ly than New Zealand.

A defining feature, again, is time: Like New Zealand, their first cases came later than many other countries’. Another characteri­stic is they tend to be non-Western, with economies less driven by internatio­nal tourism.

Among them is Paraguay, in South America.

Its first confirmed case came on March 7, about one week after New

Zealand’s.

It had social distancing measures in place quickly: From March 10, it restricted public gatherings and by March 20, had enacted a full national lockdown. At that stage, it had just 18 cases, with only one linked to community transmissi­on; its case numbers have slowly risen to 77.

Its extreme response has been criticised, with accusation­s of brutality at the hands of local police enforcing the lockdown.

Similarly, Kenya also enacted strict measures early on its curve. It closed all schools, banned public gatherings, and closed the borders to non-Kenyans on March 15, two days after its first confirmed case. It expanded its restrictio­ns to a national curfew by March 25.

As of Thursday, the country had 81 confirmed cases. Like Paraguay, there have been criticisms of heavy-handedness among police enforcing the curfew.

Morocco, in North Africa, had its first confirmed case on March 2. It began restrictin­g entry to the country from March 13, ramping up to a full lockdown on March 20, at which point it had 77 confirmed cases.

It, too, has been criticised for authoritar­ian elements in its response, namely arresting people for spreading ‘‘fake news’’ about the pandemic.

Even further along the curve are those countries with the most time, many of which are in the Pacific.

The likes of Papua New Guinea and Fiji have enacted lockdowns with barely a handful of cases between them, effectivel­y before the curve has even begun.

Although there are some examples of countries moving faster than New Zealand, they sometimes came with concerning enforcemen­t measures.

By comparison to similar countries, New Zealand acted about as quickly as any other in the Western world, largely with the benefit of time.

Neverthele­ss, it is accurate to say New Zealand went hard and went early.

* One difficulty is comparing the lockdown measures between countries, as some are much stricter than others. The use of a logarithmi­c scale can also be confusing, as it makes large numbers look close to smaller numbers, distorting the severity of countries further up the curve. Nearly all Covid-19 graphs have limitation­s and should be viewed with that in mind.

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