Lessons from Britain’s errors

As the days warm up and alert levels come down in New Zealand, spare a thought for the place we used to call the Mother Country. In Britain, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has announced a raft of new restrictions to try to stop a resurgence of Covid-19 cases spiralling out of control as the country heads into winter.

Pubs and restaurants have to shut at 10pm, indoor sports are banned, and there are tougher rules and fines to encourage mask-wearing, on top of the rule of six limiting the size of social gatherings. If people don’t follow the rules, Johnson warns, ‘‘we must reserve the right to go further’’.

The measures are in response to new cases rising by almost 5000 a day, with expert projections of up to 50,000 if action is not taken.

Johnson is appealing to a Churchillesque ‘‘spirit of togetherness’’ to help the country get through, but it’s clear in Britain there are deep fissures, politically, socially and even among scientists, about the best approach.

It promises to be a winter of discontent, and Johnson’s leadership must take part of the blame.

As we’ve seen around the globe, it’s a hellishly difficult equation to balance the health and economic outcomes, but it seems Britain has found the worst of both worlds.

Its Covid death toll is almost 42,000, the highest in Europe, and its 20 per cent drop in GDP in the second quarter of the year was one of the highest in the developed world.

There are a lot of reasons, but the government’s erratic path has not helped.

A hesitant early response was followed by a months-long lockdown, and then a loosening in

July that some believe was too relaxed.

Britons flocked to European holiday resorts and some brought back the virus with their suntans; the government’s ‘‘eat out to help out’’ scheme achieved one aim to get more people into restaurants to enjoy discounted meals, but some are now suggesting it may have also helped the spread.

Downing Street’s campaign to encourage workers back to their offices last month has now been replaced with advice to work from home if you can.

Covid-19 is undoubtedly a slippery enemy, requiring an evolving approach, as illustrated by the changing advice about mask-wearing.

But the yo-yo approach in words and in responses in Britain is having a corrosive effect on a weary public, and by extension the political consensus that makes for a more effective response to a pandemic.

So what lessons can New Zealand learn from the experiences of our former colonial rulers? It backs the case for a consistent and cautious approach to imposing and relaxing restrictions, which by and large we have followed here. It makes reopening the border with Australia fraught with risks that will have to be well and truly minimised.

It points to our social behaviour needing to change, even under alert level 1. In some ways the Auckland August cluster was a timely wake-up call not to be complacent about social distancing when we’re out enjoying a meal or a drink. It is not business as usual.

You can argue about the longer-term viability of New Zealand’s elimination strategy. But in the meantime stamping out community outbreaks quickly, when and where they occur, is a sunny world away from Britain’s difficult winter.

It backs the case for a consistent and cautious approach to imposing and relaxing restrictions ...