Outbreak may prick bubble plan

A Covid-19 outbreak in Sydney is being monitored closely by the New Zealand Government and underscores the need for caution, a Government spokeswoman says.

Australian states have imposed tough border restrictions on travellers from New South Wales after a resurgence of Covid-19 was detected in the community in Sydney’s northern beaches last week.

Yesterday, NSW recorded 15 new cases, taking the total number of cases linked to the cluster to 83.

The outbreak comes just days after it was announced the New Zealand and Australian governments had agreed in principle to open a quarantine-free travel bubble by the end of the first quarter of 2021.

A New Zealand Government spokesperson said the opening of a travel bubble was dependent on no significant change in the circumstances of either country. ‘‘Decisions on whether or not to proceed with a travel bubble will occur in the new year and we will assess the situation at that point.’’

Economist Benje Patterson said Sydney’s outbreak would ‘‘almost certainly’’ slow down the speed with which a trans-Tasman bubble would be opened. It would also have ramifications for the design of how the bubble would work.

‘‘Given lag times in policy design processes, and the lead-in time needed by the tourism industry to prepare themselves for a scale up again, it may be that the March quarter window is missed.’’

The Sydney outbreak highlighted the need for state-bystate restrictions to be coordinated, something Patterson believed was necessary to get a trans-Tasman bubble off the ground.

‘‘Such settings would raise the complexity of any travel bubble, but it is an almost certain situation that we will have such flare-ups again.’’

Board of Airlines Representatives of New Zealand executive director Justin Tighe-Umbers said while the developing situation in Sydney was being watched carefully, airlines remained optimistic the travel bubble could still eventuate before the end of March.

Tighe-Umbers said New Zealand needed a traffic light style risk management system for the border, as has been suggested by University of Otago professors of public health Nick Wilson and Michael Baker.

Aviation consultant Irene King was optimistic about the transTasman bubble remaining on schedule.

A hotspot approach would be important for a successful travel bubble with Australia and seeing how Australian states managed the Sydney outbreak would be a good test to see how its hotspot system worked, she said. ‘‘In some ways it’s a good prototype.’’

King said the New Zealand Government needed to better communicate to the public what the travel bubble might look like and when it could open.

New Zealanders had become accustomed to a high level of communication and transparency during the pandemic but that appeared to be waning, she said. ‘‘If you say that you’re working on a bubble, we want to know what working means.’’

Without adequate information it was difficult for travel industry operators, particularly airlines, to prepare for a bubble and the increase in customer numbers that came with it, King said. ‘‘It’s just not that easy to scale back up again.’’

Clarity was also needed around what airlines’ vaccination requirements would be for travellers.

Qantas, for example, has been clear that only vaccinated passengers would be allowed to fly internationally, whereas Air New Zealand has not made its position clear.

‘‘I would think that there has to be some bilateral acceptance of vaccination,’’ King said.

Airlines remained optimistic the travel bubble could still eventuate before the end of March. Justin Tighe-Umbers

Board of Airlines Representatives of New Zealand executive director