Tasman bubble is still on the cards
The border is still up. Kiwis returning from anywhere in the world – with the exception of Australia and some Pacific nations – will have to get a Covid-19 test before boarding their planes from Monday. Australia is recovering from another Covid outbreak that hit New South Wales just before Christmas.
So what, realistically, are the odds of a trans-Tasman bubble opening by the end of March, as the Government signalled in December? Still pretty good.
First, the outbreak in NSW has been well contained, courtesy of various localised lockdowns, along with a massive ramp-up of testing and contact tracing. Domestic border closures are proving more flexible than previously, and most either have been or are about to be lifted.
Queensland is expecting to remove its restrictions on Brisbane by Friday. In NSW there are now increasing days with zero new cases. There is very little community transmission, and the few cases are being traced to previous ones. As with New Zealand’s second major Covid outbreak, state authorities in NSW do not know where the virus came from.
As a generalised precaution to stop the spread, masks now need to be worn in supermarkets, cinemas, churches and so on, as well as on flights.
Even Victoria has eased internal border restrictions with most parts of NSW.
The point is that the Australians have more of less got it under control – and the New Zealand Government understands this. The NSW, Victoria and Queensland responses were swift, efficient and mostly sensible (albeit with political grandstanding and weirdly NSW exemptions such as partial crowds at the cricket test at the SCG).
Over the past few months, Kiwi authorities have worked on how potential Pacific and Australian bubbles will practically operate.
Auckland Airport – which will continue to be the only international passenger airport for some time, even with an Australian bubble, has plans under way for so-called ‘‘green lane’’ and ‘‘red lane’’ flights, green lane being any short-haul flights to bubble destinations, and red lane being long-haul flights from Covidaffected nations where quarantine is required.
Once the Australian bubble is opened, it is understood that the international terminal will basically become green lane only, while ‘‘red lane’’ flights will land at a separate building and passengers will be bussed to be processed for quarantine, or to a separate area if transferring to another flight. The airport will need two weeks’ notice to get this working.
The other big issue, which Covid-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins has repeatedly raised in public, is how to manage repatriation of both New Zealanders and Australians in the case of a big lockdown. Here, Australia’s federal system should make things easier.
Should there be an outbreak in a certain part of Australia, say Queensland, the other states would likely close their borders to Queensland. Meanwhile, the bubble could continue in the other states.
In addition to this, one option being batted about is getting travellers to Australia to sign a form on departure acknowledging that, in the event of an outbreak, they may have to hunker down where they are for 14 days, should exit flights not be able to be arranged. Vice versa for Australians on these shores.
That leaves the politics of opening the border: convincing an at-times-sceptical public that this can all be done safely will be a hard ask. But the economic benefits, and the relief on isolation facilities, will make it worthwhile. Plus the impact it would have on that less measurable phenomenon: confidence.