Robertson’s win record superior

Rugby fans should be wary about using statistics as the only barometer, but it’s a fact Crusaders mentor Scott Robertson has a considerably superior record as a head coach to All Blacks incumbent Ian Foster.

Robertson has a win rate of 84.16% – and six titles – as the Crusaders’ head coach since 2017. Chuck in his 83.33% – and three titles – as Canterbury NPC coach and his overall head coaching win rate is 83.99%.

Foster’s career win rate as a head coach – two years with Waikato, eight years with the Chiefs and 24 tests with the All Blacks – is 56.58%.

The series defeat to Ireland means Foster’s All Blacks record is 66.67% (16 wins, 1 draw and 7 losses in 24 tests).

That’s below his predecessors in the professional era from 1996 – Steve Hansen (86.92%), Graham Henry (85.44%), John Mitchell (82.14%), Wayne Smith (70.59%) and John Hart (75.61%).

Robertson, by comparison, has had a golden ride since taking over the Crusaders from ex-All Blacks captain Todd Blackadder.

He has since had 85 wins, 12 losses and four draws (included two canned games where points were split).

That amounts to 84.16%, a superior winning percentage to two men who coached him as a player – Wayne Smith (65% between 1997 and 1999) and Robbie Deans (74% between 2000 and 2008) and Blackadder, his former captain, (63% from 2009 to 2016).

Foster had eight seasons as the Chiefs’ head coach from 2004 to 2011, registering 54 wins, five draws and 47 losses.

His sides twice made playoffs, losing a semifinal to eventual champions the Brumbies in 2004 and suffering a 61-17 loss to the Bulls in Pretoria in the 2009 grand

final. Most of the time the Chiefs were a mid-table side.

Robertson has won a Super Rugby title in all six seasons at the Crusaders, including steering the first New Zealand team to win a grand final in South Africa (against the Lions in 2017, his first season running the cutter).

The Chiefs, by contrast, never won a Super Rugby title until 2012, the year after Foster left to join the All Blacks coaching staff. Dave Rennie took the team to glory that year, and backed it up in 2013.

Yet, while statistics do have their place in sport, it’s not necessarily a case of comparing Braeburns with Cox’s Orange when assessing Robertson and Foster’s respective records.

As an example, no-one could argue that coaching in a team in Super Rugby – especially in the last couple of years without South African opposition – is anywhere near as testing as coaching the All Blacks against quality rivals such as Ireland, South Africa and France.

The best judge of Foster and Robertson’s relative qualities as head coach would be the Crusaders’ regular All Blacks, particularly those such as Sam Whitelock, Codie Taylor and Richie Mo’unga, who have been around the block a bit.

Foster could, with some credibility, claim his overall coaching record should be seen in the context of being Hansen’s trusted assistant when the All Blacks had 93 wins, four draws and 10 losses between 2012 and 2019.

He told Stuff after taking over the All Blacks’ hot seat in 2020 that he had grown as a coach in the test sphere. Prior to taking over the Chiefs, Foster had two years at Waikato’s helm for a 72.73% wins rate. He took the Mooloos to runners-up in the 2002 final and to the semifinals the next year.

Foster fans could argue that Super Rugby was a tougher arena in his time with the Chiefs than it is now, without any South African sides in the mix.

It could also be claimed that he left the nucleus of a squad for Rennie to build on, with the new man able to add some quality in Sonny Bill Williams and rising young All Blacks Brodie Retallick and Sam Cane.

Robertson, by contrast, inherited a handy group from Blackadder (just as he had at Canterbury after Rob Penney and Tabai Matson). But he immediately stamped his own mark by winning the Super Rugby title at his first ask, on the road at Johannesburg’s intimidating Ellis Park.

Robertson missed out to Foster for the All Blacks job after the 2019 World Cup on the basis of the older man’s greater international experience. At that stage, he had just completed his third season with the Crusaders and was still in his early 40s.