Alliance faces losing its way
To navigate regional and world politics today, Canberra and Wellington need to reboot and retool the Anzac relationship, says Nicholas Khoo.
Since its origins in World War I, the Anzac alliance has served Australia and New Zealand well. But success has proven to be its own challenge. In this third decade of the 21st century, the liberal international order that the alliance contributed to constructing has lost its mojo. That order is now under challenge from within and without.
In a highly publicised speech at the Lowy Institute in July, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern summed up the reality of present-day world politics with the statement ‘‘it’s grim out there’’. Examples that support her view spring easily to mind.
In the last six months, the war in Ukraine has been raging. Closer to home, tensions in the Taiwan Straits and the East China and South China seas have raised legitimate concerns about the possibility of inadvertent escalation. Equally striking is the pace at which these geopolitical storm clouds have formed.
Ardern noted in her Lowy speech that ‘‘in just a few short years we have seen the space in which we transact foreign policy become increasingly difficult’’. We need look no further than the US-China relationship to confirm that observation.
The Biden administration has been unwavering in its messaging that the ‘‘strategic competition’’ which has developed between the US and China is here to stay. In short, storm clouds are either on the horizon or already overhead.
It is not without reason that the 2020 Australian Ministry of Defence Strategic Update observed that ‘‘our region is in the midst of the most consequential strategic realignment since the Second World War’’.
The 2021 New Zealand Defence Assessment noted that ‘‘challenges are increasing and there is nothing to indicate the trends will reverse. Unchecked, they pose a threat to New Zealand’s sovereignty and other key national security interests’’.
Interestingly, the assessment had for its title, A rough sea can still be navigated. To navigate the rough sea of contemporary regional and world politics, Canberra and Wellington need a rebooted and retooled Anzac alliance. As part of this process, a robust mission statement that reflects clear strategic thinking will be required.
Hard questions need to be asked in formulating this mission statement. How can we stress-test the Anzac alliance to ensure it is fit for purpose? Is our kit up to the demands of 21st century competition and cooperation? Are our military doctrines and practices aligned? Are Canberra and Wellington equally committed to backing the alliance with our chequebooks? These sorts of questions should be at the top of an Anzac alliance mission statement.
We should not underestimate the challenges involved. It is very possible a robust mission statement cannot be constructed because Canberra and Wellington simply have a different approach to China.
China’s increased willingness to wield instruments of economic and military power on Australia since 2020 has required a formal Anzac statement. Instead, there has been silence. An example of this occurred in June at the Nato summit in Madrid attended by Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Ardern. The summit declaration made clear that that China is firmly on Nato’s radar screen. ‘‘We face systemic competition from those, including
. . . China, who challenge our interests, security and values and seek to undermine the rules-based international order.’’
What is the Anzac perspective on the summit’s statement on China? That an answer is not immediately obvious should serve as a wakeup call. It might be objected that an Anzac mission statement is unnecessary since the status quo, while troubling, does not warrant the adjustments required to defend the international order that the alliance is a part of.
If that is the case, then we will have made a choice to allow events to shape our strategic destiny. After all, a decision to either not respond to a challenge, or to respond insufficiently, is still a decision.
But history records decisions. And history will record whether the Anzac alliance rose to meet the challenge, or simply lost its way as the world changed.
Nicholas Khoo is Associate Professor in the Department of Politics at Otago University.