More of the same for rest of summer
Summer has still got more left in its tank with a prediction of dry spells, higher humidity and warmer overnight temperatures for South Canterbury over the next three months.
The February to April outlook by the National Institute of Weather and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) says temperatures in coastal Canterbury are equally likely to be near average or above average.
‘‘Maximum temperatures above 30C are expected during the first week of February, but for the three months as a whole, more frequent onshore winds and marine heatwave conditions may contribute to more cloud cover, higher humidity, and warmer overnight temperatures but also lead to cooler daytime temperatures,’’ the outlook said.
Yesterday’s temperatures went some way to confirming the outlook as Timaru’s temperature soared to 32C after 3pm, according to the MetService.
Niwa says rainfall totals are most likely to be near normal.
‘‘Anticyclones, or high pressure, over parts of the country may continue to increase the risk for dry spells, particularly in the southern half of the region.
‘‘However, more frequent onshore winds may lead to more wet days (more than 1mm of rainfall) than normal.
‘‘Impacts from occasional tropical moisture plumes (a narrow corridor of concentrated moisture in the atmosphere) on the region are also possible, particularly for North Canterbury.’’
Soil moisture levels and river flows are about equally likely to be near normal or below normal.
Recordings taken over the first two months of summer show it has been dry at Aoraki/Mt Cook.
In December, the airport recorded 48mm of rain, just 10% of normal for the month and its lowest December rainfall since records began in 1928.
In January, the airport recorded 46mm of rain, only 11% of the normal rainfall and its second-lowest rainfall for the month since records began in 1928.
Waimate recorded 12mm of rain in January, its third-lowest rainfall for that month since its records began in 1898.
The MetService is forecasting a fine and hot start to Waitangi weekend in Timaru with temperatures expected to reach 28C today.
Tomorrow is forecast to be mostly cloudy with occasional rain developing late morning, clearing in the evening and a high of 28C.
A few showers are forecast on Waitangi Day with easterlies developing and a high of 24C.
At Mt Cook, today will have cloudy periods with a few showers, then rain at night with a high of 27C.
Rain, with heavy falls, are forecast for tomorrow with strong or gale northwesterlies and a high of 23C. On Monday, rain is forecast but should clear in the morning to partly cloudy and northwesterlies. A high of 21C is forecast.