Second-guessing Winston Peters
So, today it is. D-Day. Winston Peters and NZ First will get down to business to decide which of the two deals on the table to accept, and the dream will finally be over for Bill English or Jacinda Ardern.
The National and Labour leaders have been like two Lotto players clutching the winning ticket between them.
This week, one of them will finally have to let go.
If the toss goes against Labour, it could add up to 12 long years in Opposition. That’s almost a record.
And if National loses? Bill English and Steven Joyce will go to make way for the next generation. But there will be nothing seamless about the handover. There will be blood on the floor.
So the stakes are high for both camps.
Which way will Peters go? It’s a mug’s game to second guess him.
Is it Ardern, whose first-term government may have more gas in the tank than a fourth-term National government? Or does he stick with the status quo – National – which history suggests could be a determining factor, since Peters has never done a deal to change the government?
Those of us watching the daily parade from Bowen House to the Beehive and back again have exhausted ourselves to standstill on this question over the last three weeks.
There is an argument that it will depend on who wants it most, Ardern or English. But both of them want it badly so it’s unlikely either side has held anything back.
So Peters may have to feel his way based on other factors. Under MMP, minor parties have to weigh up the wins against the collateral damage of any deal. Labour killed off the Alliance,while National consumed ACT, proved toxic for the Maori Party and has had more than one crack at finishing off NZ First.
Based on that record, you’re damned if you do, damned if you don’t.
So what else? Peters is steeped in the National Party and is a more natural fit with National than Labour. But probably half his caucus lean toward Labour. Personal relationships? The generation of National MPs who used to have relationships with Peters are long gone so the ledger is in Labour’s balance now.
Trust? Peters was burned by his 1996 deal with National and again by John Key in 2008.
So the last five days of intense negotiations have been about testing the compatibility of NZ First and its potential partners – compatibility of policy, of vision, of direction, and of where they each want to take New Zealand.
But mostly, of course, it’s been about horse trading. Policy concessions to keep NZ First voters happy. A happy supporter is a return voter.
And portfolios? Peters has been at pains to insist there have been no discussions as yet about ministerial warrants and that is probably true. He has learnt from bitter experience that voters are unimpressed by ministerial portfolios and it won’t win him any extra votes.
But it can be assumed that the allocation of certain portfolios is implicit in some of the policy concessions on the table.
Ministerial titles and the profile that go with them are how Peters keeps his MPs happy – and in line.
So whichever party is prepared to go further on policy concessions and portfolios will have the inside running but the quirk that enables parallel negotiations under MMP means Peters can use one side as leverage off the other.
Peters has had the weekend to think things over at his Northland bolthole, probably with just a few of his closest confidantes at his side.
Using the delay calling his board together was probably just a way for Peters to give himself breathing space.
Parliament will be a hive of parallel meetings today as phone calls and documents fly between NZ First and the negotiating teams in Labour and National before a final decision is made but we may not know until tomorrow what the outcome is.
So will stability be the deciding factor for Peters? Three is always a crowd in coalitions so the advantage is with National.
But stability is not within the power of either leader to promise. The 1996 coalition was a two-way deal and National had a substantial majority with NZ First. The government fell apart regardless.
There is one factor beyond Ardern’s ability to control in any deal she offers Peters, however – and that’s the Greens’ unconditional support.
Even Green Party co-leader James Shaw can’t guarantee that. Shaw is only one half of the Green Party leadership, and the election for a new co-leader could yet turn into a referendum on his handling of whatever deal he negotiates with Labour.
There are already deep divisions within the Green Party over how the Metiria Turei controversy played out. Any deal that treats the Greens like the junior partner to NZ First – especially if it forces them to swallow too many dead rats on NZ First policy – will drive a further wedge.
Peters knows that and is already deeply distrustful of the Greens anyway. So National it is then. Maybe. Or maybe not.