No sign of big wet drying out with La Nina pending
Five out of the six main centres have already surpassed their annual rainfall averages and there may be more rain on the way with the potential arrival of a La Nina weather system.
With two and a half months of the year to go, only Dunedin is not ahead of its average.
The North Island and upper South Island have experienced a soaking this winter and spring, while parts of the south have been basking in balmy weather.
While dairy and cropping farmers are struggling, it’s a different story for traditional dry stock farmers on the east coast.
Federated Farmers Wairarapa provincial president Jamie Falloon said the land ‘‘is looking so green it hurts the eyes’’. The prospect of a La Nina promising more easterly rain would be welcomed. ‘‘You farm for a dry summer so rain is a bonus.’’
Niwa climatologist Ben Noll said he had been keeping a close eye on the tropics which impact on New Zealand’s climate. ‘‘There’s an increasing chance of a La Nina system developing by the end of 2017, right now we’re in ENSO neutral - neither El Nino or La Nina.’’ A La Nina would bring more easterly or north easterly winds than usual in spring, while in summertime there might be more of an easterly wind direction. This would bring more rain to the north and east. On the other hand, the further south, the drier it might become.
Southland Feds provincial president Allan Baird said the weather gods had provided a generous amount of rain in spring, but areas were slightly drying off. Further inland in the Queenstown Lakes district, Otago Feds provincial president Phill Hunt said some irrigators were working already, but in the middle of lambing farmers did not want a late cold snap. In Manawatu¯ the lack of sun is curbing the mating instincts of dairy cows and farmers expect fertility levels will be lower than normal. Fewer cows than usual are cycling because of cool weather.