Reality yet to set in for National
Murphy’s law. As National MPs find their way to the Opposition benches – many of them for the first time – immigration is dropping, the dollar has fallen helping exporters, and the housing market is cooling.
They were hot button issues during the election campaign. National was already feeling robbed by Winston Peters. Wait until Peters claims credit for all three if the indicators continue to fall. He won’t even blush.
These were the top three planks in Peters’ election platform – and part of the reason for his three-fingered salute to National and Bill English after its failed coalition negotiations. National wouldn’t go far enough on Peters’ demands for changes to immigration, monetary policy and foreign house buyers.
Peters is a useful scapegoat for National over its election loss. But when the post mortems begin, National will have to look closer to home.
Leader Bill English might have got the party to a winnable position. But it had already squandered that advantage before it got to the negotiating table with NZ First.
National’s ‘‘cut out the middle man’’ strategy was its biggest blunder – it destroyed the last scraps of trust between Peters and National, which has a long history of trying to kill off NZ First.
Questions are already bubbling internally – there are suggestions the deliberate leaking of Peters’ pension overpayments was part of that strategy.
National’s paucity of coalition allies makes the strategy to kill off Peters look even crazier.
What comes next for National is a painful period of adjustment and the three stages of electoral loss.
Being uprooted from government and thrown back into opposition can be a humbling experience. But humility doesn’t come overnight for someone who has been driven around in a Crown limo and got used to officials bolting into action when ‘‘the minister’’ speaks. It will come even harder for National MPs who still feel like they ‘‘won’’ the election.
It took ministers from the previous Labour government at least three years to stop blaming voters for their 2008 election loss. Year one was denial – Helen Clark had been a successful prime minister for so long they believed voters would realise their mistake and vote Labour back once the love affair with John Key had cooled. Year two was anger. And year three was grief when it finally hit home there was no easy way back.
But it took another six years for them to accept that Labour needed generational change.
For now, National MPs are putting a gloss on the move back to Opposition. Time for overseas holidays. Time to get fit and eat healthy meals. More time with the kids.
But eventually reality will come crashing in. Opposition is a hard place to come back from. Especially during a new government’s first term.
English’s leadership is safe for now – no-one would be mad enough to put their hand up for the job during a new government’s honeymoon period. And certainly not up against a celebrity prime minister.
If there needs to be a fall guy, it will more likely be English’s right-hand man, Steven Joyce, who was the architect of National’s election strategy.
But National is being sustained by two things at the moment; at 44 per cent support, it is still more popular than Labour. There is also an expectation that the new government will blow itself apart because of tension between Labour, NZ First and the Greens.
That same expectation carried National through the first term of the Clark government in the early 2000s.
But some MPs with longer memories remember that, even after the Alliance fell apart, Clark managed to win a second term. National, meanwhile, crashed to its worst-ever result.
If National’s poll ratings start to slip, English will look less secure. But poll ratings are not necessarily his only problem. It’s not rocket science to figure out that if he couldn’t win an election on 44 per cent in 2017, National is either going to need more than that in 2020 – or it will need to reach out to NZ First.
English might have too much baggage with NZ First to be that person. So who are the options? English’s deputy Paula Bennett would have been the obvious pick – but her star waned during the campaign.
Judith Collins is the sort of scrapper you need in Opposition. But she is the leader you choose when your support crashes and you need to consolidate your base. National isn’t in that space yet.
Simon Bridges and Nikki Kaye are the next generation of leaders – and a more natural fit if National tries to reach out to the Greens, or a new blueGreen vehicle next election.
But ‘‘don’t panic’’ will probably be National’s strategy for now. Around the world – and particularly here – the political rule book keeps getting broken.
National will be reminding itself that if Ardern can go from leader to prime minister in just 10 weeks, anything can happen.