Can Super Rugby survive drain to northern hemisphere?
The title of Geoff Parkes’ book A World in Conflict – the Global Battle for Rugby
Supremacy says it all.
It’s a fascinating read, dense with detail about the business of modern rugby, from Leinster’s dual responsibility to the Irish national team and community rugby to the folly of Sanzaar’s expansion in 2016.
From a southern hemisphere perspective it is also troubling. Parkes, a Kiwi now living in Melbourne, is not an alarmist. When it is suggested his book is ‘‘terrifying’’ he prefers the word ‘‘sobering’’.
Yet he does not dissent from the view that what he outlines can be Rugby may no longer be super and the southern hemisphere could be in trouble.
Parkes offers a caveat. ‘‘One thing that came through [when writing the book] is that people just don’t know about the future,’’ Parkes says. ‘‘Even guys like [NZ Rugby boss] Steve Tew and guys who have a big hand to play in determining what happens, even they don’t really know. In fact they don’t know at all.’’
Still, Parkes says it is reasonable to make assumptions about the future of Super Rugby and southern hemisphere rugby based on the lessons that professionalism in other codes, particularly football, has taught us. And that is money talks loudest and those with the deepest pockets control the flow of players and the game.
Putting a time frame on the southern hemisphere’s decline is an inexact science. Parkes thinks that Sanzaar will go into the next round of broadcasting rights discussions roughly in the same format as it exists today – with South Africa staying in the south hemisphere bloc – and will extract a good enough number to give themselves some breathing space for three or four years.
But he has an idea of what the tipping point will look like for New Zealand in the longer term. ‘‘[Aaron Cruden]’’ was obviously a high-profile signing but when they start losing starters, and in their mid-20s and getting run-ons for the All Blacks, that’s going to signify that change we’re talking about. I think there is only the potential for that pressure to increase, unfortunately.’’
As for idea that the English and French clubs will implode under the weight of their spending, Parkes says forget about. Broadcasting deals in the north are booming and the number of investors ready to throw money into clubs shows no sign of abating. In fact, things could get worse.
‘‘If [French rugby president] Bernard Laporte gets his way with limiting the number of foreign starters [in the Top 14] all that is going to do is increase the value of the offers to better players. It’ll be like soccer. They’re still going to have the same amount of money to spend. That’s what is going to hurt New Zealand.’’
It’s a prospect Parkes says NZ Rugby is well aware of.
‘‘The best thing that New Zealand has got going for them is the fact that the guys at the top on the coaching side and also on the admin side, they don’t buy into that New Zealand is by right somehow superior to everyone else,’’ he says. ‘‘They definitely understand the threats commercially and on the field from everywhere else.’’
Whether they can do anything about it is another question entirely.